• ANC, ODM, Jubilee and several independent candidates will be in the race to replace Murunga.
• Anangwe said money, clans and individual names of candidates will determine the outcome.
Image: FILE
Image: /FILE
Image: FILE
The March 4 Matungu by-election is not about candidates but big names flexing their muscles to find out where they stand, a political scientist has said.
ANC, ODM, Jubilee and several independent candidates will be in the race to replace Justus Murunga who was buried a month ago.
While ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula will be seeking to prove they have a grip on the region, ODM leader Raila Odinga will be seeking to use the by-election to demonstrate that ODM is still the party of choice in the region.
“The election will indicate party fortunes in the region. If ANC loses it will be Mudavadi’s Waterloo moving into 2022,” Prof Amukowa Anangwe told the Star on Saturday.
A defeat for Raila's ODM would be a clear indication that his influence in Western is waning, Anangwe said.
Anangwe, a former Medical Services minister, said the election would provide a testing ground for Deputy President William Ruto's Tangatanga camp and a loss would be a reversal of the momentum he has started by bagging the Msambweni seat through an independent candidate.
ANC has settled on Peter Nabulindo while ODM has cleared former MP David Were. Jubilee is set to clear either Raphael Welimo or Makokha Okumu who have shown interest in the ticket.
DP Ruto is expected to back one of the independent candidates.
Aspirants for the by-election are yet to hit the ground. Most of those who have expressed interest in the seat are mobilising their supporters on social media where they are forming WhatsApp groups.
ANC's Nabulindo, who was cleared by his party 10 days ago, was on the ground on December 24 when he was unveiled by Mudavadi.
Only Kakamega county Jubilee coordinator Welimo and former Ford Kenya youth leader Bernard Wakoli have been seen on the ground meeting groups in various parts of the constituency.
Other aspiring candidates in the race are Mombasa lawyer Charles Kasamani (independent), Murunga's second wife Christabel Amunga (independent), David Were (ODM), Athman Wangara (independent) and Paul Atwa (independent).
Independent candidates have only been cleared by the Office of Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) but the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is yet to clear them.
Anangwe said money, clans and individual names of candidates will determine the outcome.
Sugar issues, especially the stalled revival of Mumias Sugar Company and the Nabongo factor, will also inform the decision by voters in the by-election.
Religion will play a role since the constituency has a strong Catholic movement with robust protestants and evangelical movements besides the turnout.
Stakes are higher as the outcome of the by-election will define the direction the region will take in 2022.