Kibra is a very strong ODM zone although there could be a significant presence of ANC and even Jubilee.
Most people in Kibra are from Nyanza and another significant portion is from Western. So, if you go the tribal way, then it means ODM and ANC should be battling in the by-election.
However, ODM's advantage is that the party is more on the ground. It's not just about numbers. ODM people themselves are more political. If you went to Kibera you'd be forgiven for thinking that everyone is from the Luo community or is ODM. That is how we look at our politics, sad as it may be.
So it will be very difficult for another party to snatch that win from ODM. Remember also the magic of the ODM brigade during campaigns. It is something to reckon with, led by the likes of secretary general Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
When such people descend on Kibra, other parties also eyeing the seat will not be eager to counter. And then there's Baba himself. If he goes there to campaign, that will be the end of the story. Baba needs to make only one appearance during the campaign and the seat will go to ODM.
Of course, people will run on other parties' tickets and they will be from the Luo community or from Western. One could easily imagine that if they get a certain number of votes from their communities, they will stand a good chance of winning. But that might not be the case. They may be very good mobilisers and have excellent ideas but when the ODM brigade descends on the ground, nobody will stop them.
Personally, I don't see anybody but the ODM candidate standing a chance in Kibra. Unless there's very very serious fallout in ODM during nominations. If this happens, it could injure ODM to the advantage of its rivals.
This means that ODM would have to be very careful with the way it handles nominations because the primaries could turn out to be their undoing.
But if they conduct an excellent nomination, nobody will stand in their way in Kibra.
The political analyst spoke to The Star
