What Raila's impending exit means for Western politics

The impending exit of opposition leader Raila Odinga from the local political scene, should he bag the African Union Commission (AUC) chairman job, will either create room for the local leaders in Western or expose their weaknesses.

The ODM boss has enjoyed a sizeable following in the vote-rich region for close to two decades.

Raila’s exit could leave the region's political leaders fighting to inherit his support base.

Former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya has declared he will be seeking a top national position and is seeking to inherit Raila as the ODM party leader, a position he hopes will help him take over the former prime minister’s following in Western and countrywide.

Ford Kenya party organising secretary Chris Mandumandu said whether Raila leaves local politics or not does not matter at the moment.

The post-Raila politics in Western will depend on the strategies employed by Western leaders who include National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Oparanya and Former Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa, he opined. 

“Maybe their approach has been wrong in the past and that is why Raila outsmarted them. It will all depend on the approach because President William Ruto outsmarted him (Raila) in 2022,” Mandumandu said.

Western regional ANC coordinator Tony Maleche said Raila’s absence will create room for local leaders to strengthen their parties and position themselves for the 2032 race.

“Raila’s exit will no doubt create space for us as ANC to take over his support base in the region and we're ready for the task,” he said.

ANC members in Kakamega met on March 28 at the party offices and replaced officials who defected to other parties including former Senator Cleophas Malala, who decamped to UDA, and resolved to revamp the party by recruiting new supporters.

Mudavadi last weekend urged party members to work with the current administration. 

“I want to make it clear to ANC members. Although I may not be the official party leader but as a strong ANC member that our  conversation must be serious in how to strengthen Kenya Kwanza administration and to work closely with UDA which is the principal party in the coalition and engage in even deeper debates. Don’t ask me which debates.”

The former Sabatia MP was on Tuesday reported to be considering folding the party into UDA ahead of the 2027 poll.

During a meeting in Kakamega on Friday, the ANC resolved to support the Kenya Kwanza government in 2027 as it prepares for the 2032 race. 

However, ANC chairman Kelvin Lunani said the party will not fold into UDA but strengthen itself for the future.

“We are reminding the UDA stalwarts that ANC will not allow to be undermined in the coalition. They should remember that even retired president Mwai Kibaki was elected on Narc but sought re-election on the PNU party because of undermining the Narc affiliates and we must avoid going that route,” Lunani said.

He added that both Mudavadi and Wetang’ula will support President Ruto’s re-election in 2027.

Political commentator Martin Andati projected there was going to be confusion in Western after Raila, in the bid to fill the void that the former PM will leave. 

“Mudavadi is just sitting pretty hopping that Luhyas will vote for him if Raila is not in the picture. Luhyas are not like that. They are out there waiting for someone to give them directions,” Andati said.

“None of the big boys in Western like Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and governor emeritus Oparanya is ready to take up the mantle,” he said.

While Mudavadi has a national appeal, he is unable to go to the people, instead focusing on his foreign affairs docket, Andati noted.

The commentator said Wetang’ula was 'busy fighting his wars in Bungoma" and did not venture out to don a national figure.

“Yes Wetang’ula is working with MPs but the question is, will the MPs take him to the people? How will the MPs take him to the people when you’re holding one harambee and then disappear for months,” he posed.

Andati alleges that Luhyas are seemingly unhappy with the government because it has not fulfilled the promises made, including reviving agriculture, sharing 30 per cent of government and building tarmac roads.

Political analyst Marin Oloo said Raila’s exit provides a chance for leaders in the region to chart the Western agenda they have been yearning for.

“Western can look inwards or outwards in the absence of Raila. His absence will give the region a chance to think on its own without his shadow,” Oloo said.

“If the local leadership plays it right it will achieve the Luhya agenda but if they don’t, they will continue externalising the community issues as they have done before,” he added.

The analyst cast aspersions on the capabilities of Western leaders to fill the vacuum that will be left by Raila.

Mudavadi and Wetang’ula should justify their earlier complaints that Raila was responsible for divisions in Western by entrenching themselves in his (Raila’s) absence, Oloo said.

He added that Oparanya lacks the national appeal to pull the necessary support to drive the region's agenda.

“Oparanya remains an ODM person. His politics are relevant in ODM for as long as he is still walking with Baba but Raila’s exit will confine him to local politics where he is involved in undermining other leaders instead of building his own stature,” he said.

Oloo said ODM will more likely fragment following Raila's departure, with one faction going with Oparanya, another with former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho and the other remaining in Nyanza with Opiyo Wandayi.

Oparanya has already declared interest in succeeding Raila as ODM leader and hopes to use the position to anchor his presidential bid in 2027.

Last week, Oparanya said Luhyas must form the government at the next general election.