The Saturday signing of a coalition agreement by parties affiliated to Azimio has opened a window where politicians who ditched ODM will now support Raila Odinga's presidential bid.
The deal gives fringe parties an opportunity to field their own candidates, most of whom had no chance of clinching the ODM ticket in the party’s stronghold in Nyanza region.
But while many will have leeway to field candidates in other elective positions, the next headache is whether they will beat ODM candidates in the August polls.
Although Nyanza, which is believed to be an ODM stronghold, has not been zoned, the party’s leadership has been pushing for a six-piece voting model.
Speaking in Kisumu during Azimio rally on March 11, Raila said he wanted to see all the seats go to ODM.
“Like I said earlier in Wajir, which was misunderstood, we don’t want madoadoa here,” he said.
He wants his supporters in Nyanza to only elect MCAs, MPs, woman representatives, senators and governors who are running on ODM tickets.
The argument advanced by Raila on this model is to have a strong preference for the party in both the Senate and the National Assembly after the August polls.
Having numbers in Parliament makes it easier for the party forming the government to implement its agenda.
Raila also said he was pushing for six-piece because the funds given to political parties are pegged on their strength in terms of those elected on a particular party.
But the debate about six-piece voting is already causing apprehension within Azimio affiliated parties in areas perceived as ODM strongholds.
Members of these parties who support Raila's presidential candidature want the focus to be on mobilising support for the Azimio flagbearer instead of pushing for the six-piece model.
Most affiliate parties argue that the six-piece model will scuttle Raila’s campaign and reduce his votes.
In Nyanza, notable political leaders who will be backing Raila after parting ways with him in the past include Dalmas Otieno, David Ochieng, Augustino Neto, Martin Ogindo and Raphael Tuju.
Former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, who fell out with the ODM leader over disputed nominations is also supporting Raila’s candidature.
On Saturday, he was among the leaders from Nyanza who attended the unveiling of Azimio-Oka coalition in Nairobi.
David Ochieng, whose MDG party joined the movement through Oka, was present and promised to campaign for Raila.
The suspicion within ODM is that although the new converts may have willingly teamed up with the party under Azimio-Oka umbrella to support Raila, their hearts could be elsewhere.
Many within the rank and file are fearful of what might befall a Raila regime after the August polls in regard to party loyalty.
In 2013, the TNA wing of Uhuru Kenyatta and URP of William Ruto joined forces to form Jubilee Party that went on to form the government.
After a successful first term in office, cracks emerged in the ruling party after the 2017 elections.
The wrangles threatened to tear apart the Jubilee Party but Uhuru was able to steady the boat and complete his term with the support his administration received after his handshake with Raila.
“My house was on a fight in the second term and I was forced to reach out to Raila, my brother Kalonzo Musyoka, Gedion Moi and the rest to steady the boat,” he said
Edited by A.N
