Western and Coast will receive heavy rainfall, according to the latest forecast.
The June-September seasonal forecast by Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre shows other areas expected to receive above-normal rain include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, much of Uganda, South Sudan and Sudan.
On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
An early to normal onset is expected in several parts of the region, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan.
However, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.
The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The June-September seasonal forecast shows above-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures over the greater Horn of Africa.
Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s director, said the greater Horn of Africa stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities.
"The forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact, especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience the impacts of floods.
“As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems, which serve as key instruments of preparedness, guiding us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key for early action,” he added.
In line with the World Meteorological Organization's guidelines and recommendations, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the greater Horn of Africa.
