- The food security and nutrition situation in most parts of the ASAL areas in the northern and eastern parts of Kenya is likely to deteriorate.
- Late onsets, poor distribution and reduced amounts of rainfall is likely to negatively affect agricultural production especially in Eastern sector where reliance on the short rains is high.
Image: STEPHEN ASTARIKO
The weatherman has forecasted depressed rainfall in the coming short rains season and cautioned farmers that rely on the cropping season.
The meteorological department said the short rains season constitutes an important rainfall season in Kenya especially in the Central and South-eastern regions of the country.
Kenya Meteorological Department director Stella Aura said most global climate and weather forecasting models predict that La Nina is likely to develop over the October-November-December season.
“The distribution of the rainfall in time and space is expected to be generally poor over most areas especially during the month of October and the peak month of November. In the month of December, rainfall reduction is expected over several places in the country as the season draws to an end,” Aura said while releasing the weather outlook on Tuesday.
“The temperature forecast indicates that warmer than average temperatures are likely over most parts of the country during the season. There are also enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures in Eastern Kenya,” she said.
Aura said most parts of the country are likely to experience depressed rainfall.
She said this will be driven by near to below average Sea Surface Temperatures over the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline), coupled with warmer than average SSTs over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia).
Aura explained that this constitutes a negative Indian Ocean Dipole that is not favourable for good rainfall over most of East Africa.
The weather outlook however indicated that there will be isolated incidences of storms that could cause flash floods despite the expected depressed rains.
The areas likely to receive below-average (depressed) rainfall are Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok counties.
Others are Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nairobi, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Garissa, Marsabit, Isiolo, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and Tana River counties.
The forecast further indicated that Northeastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, some parts of Garissa, Marsabit and Isiolo will receive highly depressed rainfall.
The forecast indicated depressed rains which could worsen drought that is currently being experienced in the arid and semi-arid areas.
“There is about 1.5 times the usual chance of the country sliding into the alarm worsening phase. These forecasts show that the prevailing drought over the northern and eastern parts of country is likely to deteriorate and extend to other parts of the country.”
The September weather outlook indicted that several parts of the country will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions during the month.
“However, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central Rift Valley are likely to experience near average rainfall. Occasional light morning showers are expected along the Coastal strip while the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi county) are likely to experience occasional afternoon showers as well as cloudy conditions in the mornings especially at the beginning of the month. Sunny and dry conditions are however, likely to prevail over the northeastern, southeastern and the Coastal regions throughout the month,” Aura said.
She said agricultural counties in the Western sector of Kenya should take advantage of the expected rains and maximise on crop yield through appropriate land-use management.
“The poor rainfall performance expected in some of the ASALs is likely to impact negatively on the availability of foliage and pasture in the pastoral areas of northeastern, northwestern and southeastern Kenya,” she said.
-Edited by SKanyara