• The food security and nutrition situation is likely to worsen, requiring the need for expanding humanitarian assistance and interventions.
• As of February, 1.4 million people in ASAL counties were already experiencing acute food insecurity.
Image: STEPHEN ASTARIKO
More Kenyans especially in arid and semi-arid areas are likely to go to bed on an empty stomach.
The food security and nutrition situation are likely to worsen, requiring the need for expanding humanitarian assistance and interventions.
Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Centre has forecasted worrying drier than usual conditions in Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The Centre said the upcoming rainfall season, October to December, is an important season for Uganda, Kenya, northern Tanzania, southern and central Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
For some of these countries, this is the main farming season and it represents up to 70 per cent of the total annual rainfall.
“A drier than usual season is forecasted across Eastern Africa from October to December 2021.
"In particular, in Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, southern, central and north-western Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia and the Red Sea coast of northern Eritrea.
"Of particular concern are the drier than usual conditions forecasted over the cross-border areas of Kenya and Somalia," the Centre said.
The 2021 year is expected to continue to be a drier than usual year for majority of the regions.
Rainfall observation over the past months reveal that there have been rainfall deficits in many parts of central and southern East Africa and this is forecasted to continue until December.
“Past observed deficits, coupled with our forecast indicate moderate to severe drought conditions in the region, in particular over Uganda, south-western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and Tanzania,” the Centre said.
The start of the season is expected to be delayed by up to two weeks, especially over eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.
The forecast indicates that South Sudan, north-western Uganda and south-western Ethiopia could receive over 200 and 300mm during the entire season.
“There is a lower than usual chance of exceeding 200 and 300mm over most other regions, in particular over eastern Kenya and southern Tanzania.
The Centre said besides the dry conditions, warmer than usual temperatures are expected across the region.
Eastern Kenya is set to be hard hit.
Generally, poor rains, late-onset, coupled with other non-climatic drivers like COVID-19, economic shocks and conflict present poor prospects for farming across the region.
It said more than 30 million people in the region will likely be highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+) and in need of urgent assistance through 2021.
Agencies are asked to consider the ongoing simultaneous humanitarian emergencies impacting the region, including the Covid-19 pandemic.
Regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast to develop contingency plans and update them with weekly and monthly forecasts provided by ICPAC and National Meteorological Services.
The warning is being sounded even as 12 counties in the country are reeling from the effects of droughts.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization seeks Sh1.5 billion to cushion pastoral and agro-pastoralist communities in ASAL counties against drought.
The counties to benefit are Samburu, Isiolo, Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir and Tana River.
FAO representative to Kenya, Carla Mucavi said the appeal is in response to a drought alert in June; 12 of the 23 ASAL counties were in the alert drought phase, while 16 reported a declining trend.
“Livelihood has declined due to reduced access to pasture. About 56 per cent of the ASAL counties reported increased trekking distances to water sources for livestock and domestic use,” Mucavi said.
“This is expected to worsen in the coming months hence the need for urgent anticipatory action.
She spoke during the signing of the Anticipatory Action and Response Plan for Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Communities in ASAL counties between FAO, the Ministry of Devolution and ASAL.
Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa said cooperation will go a long way in building the resilience of communities.
“Urgent action and a coordinated response are needed from donors and other stakeholders before the situation deteriorates further,” he said.
Wamalwa said drought indicators showed about two million people in ASAL counties need assistance.
He said the figure is likely to rise as the situation worsens because there is a severe deficit of vegetation in the Isiolo and Lagdera subcounty of Garissa.
The rest of Garissa, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River and Wajir counties report a moderate vegetation deficit.
The CS said the 2020 Short Rains Assessment established the season had performed poorly.
As of February, 1.4 million people in ASAL counties were already experiencing acute food insecurity.
(Edited by Bilha Makokha)