Is Western a swing vote after Mudavadi backs Ruto?

Lack of a presidential candidate from Western in the August 9 General Election could turn the vote-rich region into a swing vote the Uhuru succession, experts say.

The exit of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi from the presidential race, together with Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula to back Deputy President William Ruto, appears to have triggered mad rush for the share of the Western bloc by the three leading political formations.

Azimio La Umoja Movement, Kenya Kwanza Alliance and the One Kenya Alliance are all keen to get a share of the 2. 6 million registered voters with another estimated 1.5 million voters outside the region.

The three groupings camped in the region last weekend to hunt for votes.

The three teams have key Luhya leaders, seemingly to endear themselves to the voters in the region.

Kenya Kwanza has Mudavadi and Wetang’ula while Azimio has retiring governors Wycliffe Oparanya, Sospeter Ojaamong’, Wilber Ottichilo, and Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa and Cotu boss Francis Atwoli. Oka has UDP leader Cyrus Jirongo.

Although the fight for the control of the Luhya bloc revolves around fighting for the interests of the region and its people, only time will which side is worth its salt.

Political commentator Martin Andati foresees a cutthroat competition by leading political formations in the region in the run up to the August race.

According to Andati, the presidential race will either be won or lost in the Luhya nation.

He said the Luhya vote both in and outside the region numbers close to 4.5 million and is critical for the national leadership.

“The numbers are big and for either side to win, it must struggle to bag the larger portion of the Luhya bloc on their side. The ground wanted Mudavadi to go all the way to the ballot but he chickened out. By this, he has lost considerable support which he must fight to regain,” he said.

Lawyer Martin Oloo said Western is a key bloc to any politician who wants to make an impact in national leadership and the absence of a Luhya presidential candidate has left the bloc scattered in different formations.

“There are going to be areas that will serve as swing votes as long as they don’t have their own candidate. Now that the Luhya candidate they wanted (Musalia Mudavadi) chickened out of the race, Western is going to be one of the swing blocs,” he said.

“The community has neither lost nor gained but they have now been set free to make their own choices. The beauty is that they don’t need to feel guilty of anything but go to where they deem fit,” he added.

Political scientist Robert Watangwa agrees that the Luhya bloc will be a swing vote in the race to succeed  Uhuru because they don’t have a candidate of their own after Mudavadi’s exit from the race.

"For as long as the Luhya leaders like Mudavadi, Wetang'ula, Khalwale and Eugene still pull in different directions, there is no way the region can bid for anything but scatter in different directions and play top-up to others," he said.

-Edited by SKanyara