Campaigns for the Wajir West by-election are heating up ahead of the April 25 vote.
Six candidates have been cleared by IEBC.
They include, former MP Ahmed Kolosh of Jubilee, petitioner Ibrahim Sheikh of Kanu and Mohamed Elmi of ODM. The others are Abass Nunow of Agano party and Ali Noor of LPK.
The constituency has more than 28,000 voters and four wards - Adamasajida, Wagalla, Hadado, and Arbajahan. Three quarters of the residents are registered in Arbajahan, Hadado, and Wagalla wards where the Mantan sub-clan is dominant. The Ajuran has 5,000 voters in Adamasajid ward where Ibrahim Sheikh of Kanu comes from.
While Sheikh is popular among the Ajuran, he will count on split votes between Kolosh and Elmi to win. In 2017, the Mantan had three candidates who split the votes, making the contest a close race. Kolosh won with just over 500 votes against Sheikh.
A part from sub-clan alliances and an individual’s popularity, voter turnout will be another determinant of who wins the by-election.
Kolosh decamped from ODM. He has been endorsed by his Mantan sub-clan in Rer-Aw Mohamud, Rer-Aw Maow and Rer- Aw Samatar.
This gives him an edge over other candidates. Although Elmi is also from the same sub-clan, he is viewed as a rebel or spoiler. He was on the ballot in 2013 and 2017 and finished third.
His victory was nullified by the Supreme Court over electoral irregularities at Qara polling station where he garnered 528 votes.
Last week, Deputy President William Ruto vowed to leave nothing to chance to ensure that Kolosh was re-elected.
“Jubilee party missed the seat because we had no candidate in Wajir West the last election. Now we have gone for Kolosh and we will sweep that seat which was an opposition zone for a long time,” Ruto said at the party’s headquarters in Pangani, Nairobi.
Wajir West is the only constituency that has had all it’s MPs elected on the opposition party since 1979 and it remains to be seen whether the constituency will join the ruling party.