- WMO says there is 80 per cent chance of neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April to June.
- The global organisation says there is a chance of La Niña developing later in the year, but the odds are currently uncertain.
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El Niño is likely to persist until May.
The latest update from the World Meteorological Organization puts that possibility at about a 60 per cent.
WMO says there is 80 per cent chance of neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April to June.
The global organisation says there is a chance of La Niña developing later in the year, but the odds are currently uncertain.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months.
It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It influences weather and storm patterns in different parts of the world.
This, however, takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.
WMO secretary general Celeste Saulo says every month since June las year has set a new temperature record, and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record.
“El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” she says.
Saulo says ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño.
“But sea surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 sea surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Niño alone,” she says.
El Niño events have a major impact on societies and economies.
Saulo says accurate seasonal forecasts from the WMO helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health.
"Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Niño have saved countless lives. Predictions for rainfall in the forthcoming three months (March to May) are similar to some of the canonical rainfall patterns associated with El Niño."
The 2023–24 El Niño has peaked as one of the five strongest on record.
It is now gradually weakening, but it will continue to impact the global climate in the coming months, fuelling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities.
Above normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May.
El Niño typically has the greatest impact on the global climate in the second year of its development—in this instance, 2024.
The continuing, albeit weaker, El Niño and predicted above-normal sea surface temperatures over much of the global oceans are expected to lead to above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months, and influence regional rainfall patterns, according to a Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by WMO to accompany its El Niño/La Niña Update.