Poor strategy cost ODM in Msambweni, say political observers

Independent candidate Feisal Bader’s Msambweni victory is a big blow to ODM and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, who used the wrong strategies in their campaigns, political observers say.

Bader garnered 15,251 votes against his closet challenger ODM’s Omar Boga’s 10,444 votes to clinch the Msambweni seat left vacant following the death of Sulieman Dori in March. Dori was Feisal’s uncle.

The MP-elect had the backing of Deputy President William Ruto, making this a battle not only between Feisal and Boga as the main candidates but also between Ruto and ODM chief Raila Odinga and his handshake partner President Uhuru Kenyatta.

This victory will embolden Ruto, who used the by-election as part of a strategy to test his political clout at the Coast.

On Wednesday morning, former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale said Feisal was never an independent candidate and that Boga was not their only opponent.

“The opposition was not only Boga. We won against ODM, against the police, the security agencies, Joho, (Interior PS Karanja) Kibicho, (Interior CS Fred) Matiang’i and Raila,” Khalwale said in Msambweni.

Khalwale, his former Machakos counterpart Johnston Muthama and Belgut MP Neslon Koech were on Tuesday arrested at Jomo Kenyatta Primary School and Magutu polling station by police in Msambweni for causing a disturbance.

While Khalwale claimed he was snatched away from the police by his supporters, Muthama and Koech spent the night at the Port police station in Mombasa and were taken to court in Kwale on Wednesday morning.

Khalwale said: “Feisal was not an independent candidate. He was a candidate of the Hustler Nation. That Hustler Nation will be in Machakos for the senator seat, in Matungu for the MP seat, among other areas.”

However, political analyst Hassan Mwakimako said ODM remains strong at the Coast, adding that the Msambweni by-election was not about ODM or party politics but about tactics.

He said wrong strategies by ODM led to poor voter turnout particularly in Boga’s strongholds of Bongwe/Gombato, Ukunda and Msambweni.

“Organisation was poor. ODM mostly concentrated on interest groups majorly of upcountry communities, who are not interested in good leadership,” Mwakimako said.

Another political analyst, Mwakuja Mrombo, said ODM chief Raila listened to his lieutenants instead of listening to the people of Msambweni on the ground.

He said ODM has to go back to the drawing board and change tack.

“They must start listening to the people on the ground not their leaders in those regions,” Mrombo said on phone. Ruto, he noted, listened to the people.

In most photos on social media, he noted, Lunga Lunga MP Khatib Mwashetani was seen seated down listening to people.

Mwakimako said ODM leaders never understood the dynamics of Msambweni people and politics and instead brought national politics to Msambweni.

Mrombo said the biggest mistake ODM and Raila made was to associate the by-election with the BBI.

This meant the Msamwbeni people, most of whom are buying into Ruto’s narrative that the BBI is meant for the rich, felt obliged to send a message to the government and the BBI proponents.

“This was a message that they cannot impose anything on the people like before. That the Msambweni people have minds of their own and can make choices,” said Mrombo.

Khalwale said the victory was a message to Raila that BBI will not win.

He noted that Raila had insinuated that victory for Boga and ODM in Msambweni would mean victory for BBI.

“Our happiness is saying congrats to Feisal and no BBI,” Khalwale said.

Mrombo noted that Joho’s picking of a quarrel with Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya also damaged their chances with the Msambweni people who felt the need to support their governor. Mvurya and his deputy Fatuma Achani campaigned for Feisal.

Governance expert Kevin Osido said the Msambweni by-election was a litmus test for 2022 for the IEBC.

However, he said the electoral body has shown its might despite challenges including an incomplete commission and funding problems.

“A lot of recommendations made for improvement are being implemented. The focus should now be on civic education to up numbers.  A lot of work needs to be done. IEBC need to identify the stakeholders they should closely work with,” Osido, the executive director at County Governance Watch, said.

He noted that security should be a major concern for the IEBC come 2022 with pockets of violence witnessed in the Msambweni by-election.

He said security may have played a role in the voter apathy witnessed in the by-election.

There was a paltry 39.58 per cent voter turnout out of the 69,003 registered voters in the constituency.

Gloria Orwoba, a youth policy analyst, said Msambweni is an awakening idea that people, especially the youth, are changing and are no longer going by party politics.

“Most parties are family kiosks. Msambweni is the awakening of the idea that we do not have to follow convention. Look at independent leaders who can sell [their] manifesto and may not be used by parties,” Orwoba said.

Other political observers feel Joho missed his departed friend and political go-to guy in the late Mohammed Hatimy.

Hatimy died in November days after recovering from Covid-19, with doctors saying the damage had already been done when he got healed.

Hatimy had the ability to influence opinion and decisions and was a big asset that Joho had in his political career.

“This is a cold that must be treated immediately. Otherwise, it will cause problems for ODM at the Coast,” Mrombo said.

Following his victory, Feisal called for unity saying the people of Msambweni should be given priority.

“This was a competition and a winner had to be found. Let us now be one,” he told his opponents.

“This faction wants to uplift the poor residents of Msambweni,” he said referring to the Hustler Nation lieutenants who campaigned for him.

Edited by Henry Makori