TRICKY POOL

Analysis of Stars' chances to qualify for 2026 World Cup

Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire have met just once in December 1991 in a friendly match. Kenya lost 4-0 in Abidjan.

In Summary

•The winner of the group automatically qualifies for the global showpiece to be co-hosted by Canada, Mexico and USA.

• Côte d’Ivoire is ranked 51st worldwide and 9th in Africa while Gabon ranks 86th worldwide and 17th continentally. Kenya is ranked 105th by Fifa and 22nd by Caf.

Harambee Stars players pose for a photo before a past action
Harambee Stars players pose for a photo before a past action
Image: /FILE

The Kenya national team Harambee Stars has been drawn in Group 'F' of the 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifiers against Seychelles, Burundi, Gambia, Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire.

The winner of the group automatically qualifies for the global showpiece to be co-hosted by Canada, Mexico and USA.

The four best runners-up from the nine groups will advance to the Caf play-off tournament, whose winner shall secure a spot at the coveted tournament.

The group may seem simple but how do Harambee Stars rank among the five teams?

In the latest Fifa rankings released in June, only Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon rank higher than Kenya. Côte d’Ivoire is ranked 51st worldwide and 9th in Africa while Gabon ranks 86th globally and 17th continentally. Kenya is ranked 105th by Fifa and 22nd by Caf.

These statistics are evidence that the two teams are the biggest threat to Kenya's dream of making it to the North America for its maiden time.

Gambia is the closest to the three at 119th and 29th followed by Burundi in 140th and 41st. Seychelles is the lowest ranked team in the group at 196th and 52nd.

Looking at the head-to-head, Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire have met just once in December 1991 in a friendly match. Kenya lost 4-0 in Abidjan.

Kenya has played against Gabon four times winning twice, losing and drawing one match apiece. The two first met in 1997 during the Afcon qualifiers in Nairobi where Kenya won by a solitary goal. The last meeting by the two was in March 2001 during the Afcon and the match ended in a 1-1 draw.

Among the group members, Kenya has played Burundi the most, 11 times winning four, losing four and drawing three matches. The two East African countries first met in September 2000 in a friendly in Nairobi and Kenya won 1-0.

The two have met five times in the Cecafa with Kenya winning twice and losing once. The last meeting between the two came in December 2017 in Nairobi in the Cecafa and Kenya won 1-0 and was the overall winner of the tournament.

Kenya has had a simple task against Seychelles winning five of the six times the two have met and drawing once. However, Kenya has never played against The Gambia.

From the above statistics it is clear Kenya will find it hard against Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon but might have a smooth journey against the rest. 

Harambee Stars has not lost at home to any of the opponents and will have to utilise the home advantage to raise its chances of qualifying to the global event.

If Kenya can get maximum points from home games and get at least 10 points from a possible 15 of away games, chances of being among African representatives will be very high.