The open hostilities exhibited by Raila Odinga and DP William Ruto camps in the last two weeks may appear dangerous for nationhood.
However, a careful assessment reveals the feuds that have assumed high intensity lately are healthy for the stability of the country. The ping pong brick bats are godsend for President Uhuru Kenyatta in his quest to build and bequeath a lasting legacy to Kenyans.
Raila, Uhuru and Ruto have established themselves as the foremost political players of our times. The political landscape currently rotates around them. Raila is the eldest of them in age and experience; Uhuru has the pedigree and sitting president, while Ruto has worked his way up the ladder to the high table of Kenyan politics. Raila and Uhuru have had long running supremacy battles spanning decades of vicious competition for the control of state power. The struggles between Raila and Uhuru have drawn the participation of their respective tribes and led to ethnic tensions in the country.
Uhuru’s coalition of tribes has had the upper hand since 2007. When the country thought of writing off Raila after the disputed repeat election last year, he surprised friend and foe by closing ranks with Uhuru. The handshake altered the political structure in form and content. Uhuru found himself in a dilemma of whether to hold the handshake tighter and risk losing erstwhile allies. Ruto was in a precarious position because the alliance between his boss and the opposition leader eroded his influence within government.
Yet as principal assistant to the president, he had to support it in the interest of the nation. Raila was equally between a rock and hard place. His legion of supporters needed to understand how suddenly he saw value in working closely with those who were suspected to have stolen his victory. He had to deal with feelings of betrayal within the ranks of NASA while keeping the faith of the Uhuru-Raila initiative. The visit to Kisumu last weekend seemed to have thawed the anxiety within Raila and Uhuru ranks while it escalated disquiet at camp Ruto.
On occasions, the three protagonists have been on one side of the political divide. However, many a times they find themselves separately. Current circumstances have brought them together in an unholy alliance of national unity leadership. The deal now compels the trio to work together for the good of the nation, albeit in different roles. Uhuru needs the goodwill of Raila to ward off strong waves of opposition to his leadership during the last term. He also requires the unflinching support of Ruto to help mobilise and coordinate government agencies to deliver on the Big Four agenda. Raila needed some breathing space to reorganise his troops and strategies.
He also had to tame growing rebellion in his backyard to remain relevant in the ever volatile Kenya’s political environment. Ruto’s situation is even trickier. He must retain the Jubilee stronghold and powerful networks with government. On the other hand, he has to take advantage of the handshake to gain entry to hitherto NASA strongholds. Working closely with Raila would put the doyen of opposition ahead of him in preeminence. Yet undermining the handshake also puts him on a collision path with his boss, Uhuru. Creating a balance between what is right for his political survival and what is just for the nation is not a walk in the park for the Deputy President. Around each of these principals are courtier of dependents comprising of advisers, business people and government officials.
They influence the perception of their respective benefactor in line with their individual perceived threat or benefit. Therefore, the opinion of the leaders regarding the handshake is more often tilted towards what their handlers determine. The hot and cold blowing of handshake wind is a function of the flippant approach of the leaders.
As noted earlier, the good news for Kenyans is that they are likely to be the beneficiaries of this apparent infighting. The open trading of barbs and harsh words has helped create rifts within the national leadership. The fault lines are necessary for the creation of different centres of political power. The fact that they are three is even better. The pot is stable because of the three stones is an apt metaphor. Interestingly, it is becoming clearer that Raila may be on the ballot again in 2022. He also has maintained his stable and build a stronger fort through new alliances. His place in the Building Bridges Initiative is only guaranteed to the extent of his national appeal and influence. He must shade off excess baggage carried over during the Canaan bound NASA train period.
As well he should interest new and emerging political heavy weights to join his Uhuru-Raila project and 2022 vision. These efforts and activities will make Raila busy that he may not have the time keep the government on its toes. Seeing fault in Uhuru and fighting his programmes are luxuries Jakom can ill afford at this crucial moment in his career. On the other side, Ruto as Deputy President is heir apparent. He has the disadvantage of seeking to succeed a young and energetic President. In their first term, the encumbrance of ICC and corruption cases undermined their capacity to deliver on their pledges. Uhuru is more determined to deliver on his Big Four plan to secure his legacy.
Ruto, therefore, cannot rely on his boss to galvanise for him support. He will also seek to demonstrate he is his own man and equally capable. He might as well try to distance himself from the failings of the Jubilee government on account that he was not the CEO. These events demonstrate that Ruto might wish to craft an outfit outside of Jubilee to champion his 2022 presidential bid. This outfit might out of prudence exclude key players in the inner circles of Uhuru. This will then be the de facto third centre of influence in the country. Ultimately, the feud between Raila and Ruto appear disruptive but beneficial. Uhuru will remain with committed public officers within government and loyal political leaders. This would be crucial in establishing a network of government agencies and political players to support his agenda. He will be the statesman to whom citizens look up. He will be cushioned from the parochial and partisan competition between Raila and Ruto. All the while the country would be stable with competitive politics regaining centre stage. The citizens will all be the happier.
Merry Christmas and stable bountiful Kenya 2019!
Kanyadudi is a Political and Public Policy Analyst