December 1. This is the day that has been globally designated to unite in the fight against HIV-Aids to show support for those infected, to remember those who have died of the disease and to raise awareness on its causes, spread and treatment in a bid to reduce new infections, stigma and, its possible eradication.
December 3. This is the day the county government of Nairobi designated to eradicate all matatus from picking up and dropping off passengers in the central business district as part of measures to decongest the city centre.
But just as quickly as it was effected, the ban was lifted the following day citing concern on the plight of city residents, who had to walk for long distances to their work places.
At face value, HIV-Aids and Matatus may appear as disparate as chalk and cheese. However, the successful response to the eradication of the two ought to be uncannily similar. Sadly it is not. And this is because we have classified the matatu menace as a cultural indiscipline rather than treating it as a medical disorder.
-osis is a suffix that denotes diseases, disorders, or pathological states. Examples include tuberculosis, neurosis, thrombosis and silicosis. To this list, we should add matatuosis. And this is because matatuosis has become an endemic disease in this country. A disease is a disorder that adversely impairs normal functioning in living species; and an endemic disease is one that is perennially present within a given geographic area or population.
The eradication of a disease cannot happen overnight. And perhaps this could explain why there have been many failed attempts at banning matatus from accessing the CBD. The unsuccessful attempts date as far back as 2004, when the then minister for Transport, the late John Michuki’s efforts failed, despite his success in injecting a code of conduct such as seatbelts, speed governors and uniforms for the drivers and touts for easy identification. Other attempts were by Uhuru Kenyatta in 2008, who at the time was the Local Government minister. Ironically, in his case, Nairobi governor Mike Sonko opposed the ban through a court process. His predecessor, Evans Kidero tried his luck in 2015, and Governor Sonko, who was the Senator at the time, also opposed this move. Twice Governor Sonko has tried to implement the ban, once last year and this recent ban.
The process of disease eradication starts with establishing the rationale and goal. The former should summarize the current knowledge about the disease situation, its impacts, and level of interests by stakeholders. The latter should establish what is realistically achievable given that eradication, although desirable, may be unobtainable. In the case of matatuosis, data gaps abound on the number of matatus on our road on any specific days of the week and times of the day; the socioeconomic impact this has on Nairobi residents; and who the actual players are in this industry and their levels of interest in maintaining order or chaos.
As for the goal, the ban was intended to eradicate all matatus from the CBD. However, this objective was made against the absence of data on the acceptable levels of numbers of matatus that can optimally operate in the CBD, and the number of new matatus being acquired or licensed into the sector. Without this data, it is difficult to determine whether the goal of the ban is achievable or not.
The second step is control. This means the reduction of the disease to an acceptable level as a result of deliberate efforts and continued intervention measures to maintain the reduction. Control strategies include movement control to avoid spread, restrictions on imports and stamping out. In the case of matatuosis, there is no control on matatu movement, no expunction of unroadworthy vehicles and no prohibition of new matatu imports.
The third step is elimination. This is the reduction to zero in a defined geographical space. This requires sustained control measures over time. The fourth step is eradication or ban. This is the complete and permanent reduction to zero of the disease. It is thus evident that the jump to matatu bans in the CBD is injudicious, and it is no wonder that these bans have not been successful.
In disease control, there are other factors that contribute to its success or failure. These include level of societal and political commitment in its eradication process.
In the case of matutuosis, the ban was met with a lot of resistance from the travellers and populist calls from politicians to rescind the ban. With diseases, there must be a feasible intervention that is field-tested in a defined geographical area and found effective. However, the matatu ban was not piloted, but rather a blanket ban was applied across the county. To successfully eradicate a disease, there must be consensus on the disease priority and eradication response developed by experts, decisionmakers and the scientific community. The matatu bans that have been applied over the last 14 years are virtue signals devoid of a clear scientific approach backed by credible data and tested options.
Disease eradication requires a robust advocacy plan and effective alliance with all potential collaborators and partners.
With matatuosis, the bans are discussed among county policy officers, matatu owners and law enforcement. The challenge with this configuration is that it represents only the supply side of the equation, leaving out the demand side of travelers. Therefore, the needs of the latter are rarely factored into the positions negotiated.
I submit that like disease eradication, matatu bans are laudable goals, but they carry with them a huge responsibility. There should be no room for failure. Hence careful and deliberate evaluation is a prerequisite before embarking on them. Begs the question, with matatuosis eradication, is this a goal that can be achieved in the present or future generation?
Finally, my unsolicited advice to Governor Sonko, correlation does not imply causation. Your matatu ban was supposed to de-congest the CBD. However, the traffic gridlock that was witnessed during the ban was unprecedented. So, are matatus really the cause of the city’s congestion?
A sincere politician is like dry water or a wooden iron - Anonymous