Azimio leader Raila Odinga was facing his political oblivion after losing in the last presidential election. However, the biggest casualties would be his many orphans whose political careers were pegged on him.
As President William Ruto started putting together his government without recourse to the opposition and its brigade — both in and outside the government — Azimio quickly put together their case for talks.
It was an excuse they were sure the government would spurn, as they were clearly outlandish, if not untenable. But they desperately were looking for a crest to ride on. They thus created a red herring here and smokescreen there to wage a war of wits with the sole aim of self-actualisation and survival.
Whether it will last the term of this government to sustain their relevance and enable them mount a formidable contest in the next polls is a matter of conjecture.
In all, the truce Raila hammered with the previous governments, one thing stood out: the presidents were in their sunset years and needed not worry a lot about their return to power. That gave them legroom to manouvre as lieutenants could be sacrificed as new friends were acquired.
But President Ruto in his first term can not jettison the Kenya Kwanza vessel that he will need to ride on for his second term. That alone stands on the way of Raila's stance, which in all form look poised to birth a handshake or a coalition with the government.
President Ruto has stuck to his guns aimed at protecting his alliance. Azimio lacked the much-needed clarity when its leaders announced the cessation of hostility, which came as a response to President Ruto's olive branch.
Azimio picked the gauntlet thinking it could mine it to its advantage but as things panned out, it seems they underestimated the government’s resolve to stick to the narrow parliamentary path.
As the rapprochement crystalises, the focus will shift to how the sticky issues that have been the cause of rift will be resolved. Opposition leader Raila Odinga is this time robbed of a chance to have a one-on-one with the President, a factor he has leveraged in the past talks.
Another moot point is what the opposition calls "poaching or buying" of their members by the ruling party. Shifting of alliances whether induced by pecuniary considerations or as a matter principle is the primary work of serious parties. A party will be remiss of its cardinal call if it lacked the masses registered as its members. Such things can't be subject of discussion in such a bipartisan parley.
The writer is economic and political analyst.
