• All our top likely contenders for the presidency are men or women with extensive experience of government.
• None is a neophyte like Bobi Wine. And none is a shameless autocrat like Donald Trump.
Image: OZONE
American scholars are probably going to spend decades trying to figure out “the Trump phenomenon”.
Efforts are already underway, but so far, no clear theory has emerged as to how and why a man who very openly had the characteristics of a Third World autocrat not only got to be the validly elected US President, but also came pretty close to winning a second term.
We keep reading of how “Trump may be gone; but Trumpism remains”. And this Trumpism, as far as I can tell, is identified as a powerful protest vote against “the coastal elites”: The kind of people who for many years have had great influence over the political and economic fate of the US.
If so, then we have an example of much the same kind of thing right next door in Uganda. I have no particular insight into Ugandan politics. But all the same, I would venture to suggest that the many who supported the chief rival of President Yoweri Museveni, the musician-turned-politician Bobi Wine, cannot seriously have believed he had any qualifications for the management of a modern state.
For example, Uganda has the misfortune of being on the cusp of joining the petroleum exporting states at precisely the time when the really big oil consumers – the rich nations – are working towards ending their dependency on oil. Any Ugandan president must, therefore, contend with the tightrope to be walked in seeking to maximise oil revenues while preparing for a huge drop in oil prices.
This is no task for a protest musician, however heroic his stature might be.
But elections are not won or lost on such logic. Clearly, there was a critical mass of Ugandans who were willing to entrust the future of their children to Bobi Wine, rather than allow Museveni to continue in his efforts to bring to ordinary Ugandans the benefits of citizenship in a petro-state.
In this context Kenyans have much to be grateful for.
All our top likely contenders for the presidency are men or women with extensive experience of government. None is a neophyte like Bobi Wine. And none is a shameless autocrat like Donald Trump.
So, our 2022 presidential election which grows ever closer is bound to involve dealmaking between various top politicians who command strong regional support, just as has been the case in every election since the return to multiparty elections in 1992.
And Kenya is no more likely to produce a Donald Trump (a despicable man sailing into the presidency on a wave of rejectionism) than a Yoweri Museveni (essentially, a president-for-life) or a Bobi Wine (young, inexperienced, and – if victorious – bound to be intoxicated by the temptations of power).
Indeed, if the example of outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel is anything to go by, we could argue that when it comes to politicians, the most down to earth leaders are the best when it comes to delivering tangible results for ordinary people.
The ability to command fanatical support in a specific region or tribe – which is the prerequisite for any serious presidential candidate in Kenya – is not always a blessing.
And one African leader who is currently in a position to appreciate this, is Mr Mahamat Said Abdel Kani, also known as “Mahamat Said Abdel Kain” and “Mahamat Saïd Abdelkani” (“Mr Said”) who earlier this week was surrendered to the International Criminal Court by the authorities of the Central African Republic on account of an ICC warrant of arrest issued under seal on 7 January 2019.
The newsletter from which I learned about “Mr Said” explained that he “is suspected of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed in Bangui [the capital of] CAR in 2013.”
Apparently, “an armed conflict…was ongoing on the territory of the CAR from at least March 2013 until at least January 2014 between the Seleka – a coalition of armed groups predominantly composed of Muslims opposed to former president François Bozizé – and the Anti-Balaka – a movement opposed to the Seleka and supportive of former president Bozizé…
That is what innocent civilians in some African countries have to contend with: rival militias committing war crimes in support of their preferred presidential candidates.