Two weeks ago, East Africa’s Igad Climate Predictions and Application Centre mooted the possibility of a weak La Niña weather pattern across the Horn of Africa. This could mean continued poor rainfall across Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, with the region facing its fifth consecutive period of failed rains in five years.
More than 18 million people are food insecure and further drought will push them on the path to hunger and famine, problems these countries have been fighting for decades. Women and children are the most affected. Drought is the most damaging and least understood weather phenomenon. This, coupled with growing difficulty in predicting the weather, only worsens the situation.
Timely and reliable data must be the cornerstone of any effective drought policies and community-driven action plans, to develop effective early warning systems and build resilience. It is therefore imperative that we reexamine the current focus on humanitarian response over long-term solutions, and invest more in early warning systems for long-term solutions to the current drought crisis.
According to the OCHA report for 2018, humanitarian funding needs exceeded $3.5 million (Sh355 million). Much more will be needed this year as the number of affected communities increases and their needs escalate.
Since countries continue to depend on donors, the level of preparedness and response has been lacking as they wait for another drought to turn into an emergency. How much is invested in preparedness over response and how adequate is it in tackling the root cause of drought?
Although famine was averted in 2017, drought-hit communities are becoming less resilient and more vulnerable to hunger. Many had hoped for a hunger-free 2018. Disappointingly, the skies are crystal clear, the rains are not here, and Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia have begun appealing for aid to help 15.8 million people in need.
We are faced with a long-term hunger crisis that may last for decades to come. The fundamental question then remains: How can we better invest in effective early warning systems to avert another crisis and restore the dignity of the communities affected?
Famine was averted in Somalia last year because donors, humanitarian agencies and governments not only invested in an efficient and effective early warning system, but also responded in time to the early warning alerts. This was a departure from previous drought crises when early responses were delayed because of various political factors.
Early warning systems only become effective when they are translated into early action. Governments, donors and humanitarian agencies must learn from this principle and develop policies, inject political will and prioritise resources and time in effective and robust early warning systems. This includes investment in modern technologies and financing community-led contingency plans to respond to climate-induced hazards.
Communities are hungry not only for food, but also for timely information and modern skills to prepare themselves for the changing harsh climatic conditions.
Reliance on indigenous early warning systems such as reading the intestines of a goat, looking at the stars and trees no longer hold. People must be connected to official scientific early warning systems. Existing systems are designed for and used to raise the alarm when drought has turned into a catastrophe.
We must deviate from this risky path and develop systems that address the root causes of drought crises, and place communities on the path of early preparedness, planning and resilience.
Regional Drought Policy and Campaign Manager, Horn of Africa
Oxfam International