I had long predicted that the major parties’ nominations would not be smooth and will likely have significant levels of unfairness in their strongholds. The Busia governor nomination and Jubilee’s first attempt have proved me right. From the research carried out all over the nation, expect the repeat exercise to be highly contested and with endless disputes.
Anyone who has followed Kenya’s politics for long can tell you that today political office is one of the most desired jobs in Kenya. It is simply lucrative and at the apex of many professionals and businesspeople’s careers. It is a strange phenomenon. The presidency has grown to be a tribal investment that every community feels their son or daughter should occupy.
This lies in Kenya’s experience since Independence. It is evident that we set our politics in the wrong direction when we decided that having your own in office is the only way you will have any semblance of development. This is one reason why devolution has become very popular. There is a feeling devolution has brought state resources closer to people. Whether those resources are used properly or not, their effects are being felt at the grassroots.
So, what next? The governor’s office and the MCA seat have become the most sought after in these campaigns, if the kind of investments and level of entrants seen are anything to go by.
Others have positioned themselves for the other seats (senator, MP, and woman rep), but the county elective seats are being seen as a goldmine. The resources being pushed to the counties are a great attraction. One should expect that going forward there will be more agitation for more funds to the counties.
With the expectation that the big five — Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo, Kalenjin and Kamba — have a higher propensity to produce the President, going by past experience, the agitation for more funds at the grassroots should not come as a surprise. Some areas, especially the northern frontier counties, have become strongly attached to devolution due to the positive experience of the last four years. Devolution has brought major development that hitherto was rare or nonexistent.
The Constituency Development Fund became very popular when it was first introduced after Narc came into power in 2002. That’s because its effects were felt at the grassroots. Today the county funds are very popular for similar reasons. Moreover, in a country where corruption is rife, there is always that feeling that ‘it’s our time to eat.’
Well, it is not easy to combat graft but we must keep our eye on the ball,otherwise, it will be our biggest undoing.
But keeping to nominations, who in his or her right senses, with the desire to get his/her hands on and influence the use of state resources, would just let go? The county resources are the easiest to get, hence, the popularity of the county elective seats. Becoming a county governor in Kenya is akin to becoming a regional king. The county resources become yours for the taking and dispensing at will.
With politics becoming very lucrative —with power, splendour, fame and resources (note MPs have also fought to retain CDF) — and seeing as you don’t have to work hard, expect the fights for political seats to get uglier. Many more will want them.
The more who want them the uglier the contests become. After all, in Kenya to qualify to be a politician the bar is not too high. All you need is money (whatever the source), some networks or a big clan or tribe behind you.
The nominations will have more challenges. There is always the problem of favouritism from the power echelons with a future mindset.
There are moguls who want to invest in certain candidates and, throwing in other dynamics such as clans and villages, tribes and sub-tribes, this game becomes rather ugly. Expect more fireworks when these nominations are repeated and some more during the election proper.
The writer is a researcher and consultant