Ancient Greek fabulist and storyteller Aesop once told the story of The Dancing Monkeys. In the story, a prince had some monkeys trained to dance. Since monkeys are natural mimics of men’s actions, they became excellent students and when dressed in exquisite clothing were able to dance as well as any of the courtiers at the court.
The monkeys’ performance was often met with applause from the audience. But one day a mischievous courtier threw a handful of nuts onto the stage where the monkeys were performing. When the monkeys saw the nuts they forgot their dancing, pulled off their clothes and masks and fought one another for the nuts. Thus the show ended, amidst ridicule and laughter from the audience.
This story couldn’t be more relevant to Kenya’s political scenario today, where, from the just-concluded voter registration, we are now sure that the opposition has no numbers.
The opposition did not take advantage of the voter registration period to mobilise their supporters to register. Instead, they focused on the selfish consolidation and acquisition of power, thus revealing their true nature, just like the monkeys.
It is now clear that Jubilee zones still have the largest number of voters and the infamous tyranny of numbers, which gave President Uhuru Kenyatta his round one win in 2013, still exists. From the numbers, it is clear that a first round win is not a mirage but a reality that will happen with a very huge margin.
Kenya now has 19.7 million voters, but it is likely that about two million will not turn up to vote, going by past patterns. Of the 3.7 million new registered voters, 1.48 million are in Jubilee strongholds while 1.43 million are in NASA strongholds.
The 10 battle zone counties that constitute the swing vote, and which we can share equally to both sides for argument’s sake, have 789,730 new voters. This means that Jubilee has around 50,000 more new voters than the entire opposition combined.
One may think this is a small number, but bear in mind that our Constitution requires one gets 50 per cent plus one vote to win the Presidency. In 2013, Uhuru won by more than 832,887 votes against opposition chief Raila Odinga. He got 50 per cent plus 8,000 votes.
Even if you add Musalia Mudavadi’s 483,981 votes, the combined opposition would still not have beaten Uhuru, who now has Martha Karua, who got 43,881, Peter Kenneth, who got 72,786 and Paul Muite who had 12,580.
Taking into account these political realignments, it is clear that Uhuru will win the August contest with a decisive majority. And that is not just it, a number of opposition elected leaders from the Coast, Ukambani, Gusiiland and Western Kenya have already shifted allegiance to Jubilee.
Besides, Kenyans will reelect President Uhuru because of the transformation witnessed in the past four years. This transformation has been in health, with hospitals getting better equipment, and in education, with digital learning and lessening the burden for parents by taking up some education costs.
Millions of Kenyans who did not have electricity now have power, which has made their lives easier and more comfortable. Jubilee took up infrastructure projects that were started by previous administrations and are bringing them to completion.
NASA stands no chance of winning the election, given the lack of numbers, and should stop deluding their members into believing that they will win. All they are doing is preparing to claim that they were rigged out again, but Kenyans are tired of ‘No Raila, no peace’, and the broken record about stolen elections.
The opposition should prepare to lose and hopefully retire from politics to give young people a chance to transform Kenya.