We are getting to the point where speculation over who is likely to win the presidential election in 2017, is really warming up.
And though, as a rule, it is only in the last three or so months that a clear pattern emerges of where it is all heading, it is not too early to start theorising on the factors likely to produce our next president.
To start with, we could say the contest is likely to be a repeat of 2013 with the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga running against President Uhuru Kenyatta who is seeking reelection.
But more fundamentally, where some political analysts give their attention to such factors as corruption, tribal rivalries, the state of the economy, and so on, with time I have learned to focus on just one thing: The massive and politically suicidal blunder made by one side or the other, which effectively hands over victory to the opposing side.
For since our return to multiparty politics in 1992, Kenyan politics — allowing for all those intense tribal sentiments — has really boiled down to just two sides: The government side and the opposition.
In general, we may say the government team has state resources to deploy — legally or illegally — which makes them very hard to beat. On the other side, the opposition will actually tend to have more potential voters on its side given that it is usually not difficult to persuade Kenyan voters that they have been ill-served by the government of the day.
So what kind of potentially suicidal blunder am I referring to?
Well in both 1992 and 1997 elections, President Daniel Moi won reelection with barely 40 per cent of the vote. Clearly, the suicidal blunder here was that the opposition failed to unite and thus put their roughly 60 per cent of the national vote in one basket. This is how they handed Moi two consecutive victories.
In 2002, it was Moi’s turn to blunder. He pushed through Uhuru Kenyatta as his chosen heir and presidential candidate, in the process overlooking his other political protégés. Uhuru was then a political novice and a nominated MP, having lost in the 1997 general election, while his key rivals were all established regional leaders.
Anyway, this misguided choice led to a revolt against President Moi and a mass exodus to the opposition by those key regional leaders — and only in consequence of this did one Mwai Kibaki (by then tagged as a serial loser, when it came to presidential contests) finally made his way to State House.
In the 2007 general election, we were all losers: No “victory” was worth the loss of innocent lives during the post-election violence.
But in 2013, we had the same pattern reassert itself: Prime Minister Raila Odinga had back in 2009 made a huge strategic blunder which was to cost him what would otherwise have been the easiest of victories in 2013. For back then, he led the process of evicting thousands of members the Kalenjin community — among the most fierce and unyielding of his supporters in 2007 — from the heights of the Mau Forest catchment area.
Environmentally, this was a heroic thing to do: He staved off the complete drying up of the Mara River, and other rivers, which is what we were heading for if this mass eviction had not taken place.
But politically, it was the greatest possible strategic blunder: These evictions, predictably led to grief and unforgiving bitterness within the Kalenjin community, and paved the way for their mass departure from ODM.
You could explain Raila’s loss to Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2013 presidential election in many ways — that is if indeed you believe he really lost at all.
But undoubtedly a key factor which worked against him, was this departure of the Kalenjin bloc vote, which had contributed greatly to his impressive tally in 2007.
So what is the politically suicidal blunder which will determine the outcome of next year’s presidential election, effectively handing over victory to either the government or to the opposition?
Well, I don’t think we have seen it yet.
But rest assured it will come. It always does.