• Weather outlook indicates that there will be generally depressed rainfall across all the Arid and Semi-Arid counties during the October-December 2022 rainfall season.
•The August National Drought Early Warning Bulletin said the number of people in need of assistance is projected to increase to 4.35 million by October.
Image: JACK OWUOR
More Kenyans are likely to face hunger sooner than the national government's earlier projection of December.
The National Drought Management Authority now says at least 4.35 million people will be in need of food aid by October if the drought crisis continues unabated.
On August 8, Special Programmes CS Margaret Kobia said the number of Kenyans in need of food aid is likely to rise from 4.1 million people to 4.35 million by the end of the year.
“The weather outlook indicates that there will be generally depressed rainfall across all the arid and semi-arid counties during the October-December 2022 rainfall season," the CS said.
"This is due to La Nina, hence the prospect of a fifth failed rain season. Consequently, the number of people in need of relief assistance could, therefore, rise to 4.35 million.”
She spoke during a consultative meeting with government officials and development partners on the current drought situation.
But on Saturday, the authority said the situation was worsening faster than was earlier projected. In their estimation, the drought situation has deteriorated in 20 of the 23 ASAL counties.
These are Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Marsabit, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi counties.
The authority attributed the situation to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains, coupled with previous three failed consecutive seasons.
The August National Drought Early Warning Bulletin said the number of people in need of assistance is projected to increase to 4.35 million by October.
The early warning bulletin released on Saturday by NDMA stated that drought will worsen if the short rains season performs below average.
According to the bulletin, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in alarm drought phase.
Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi counties are in alert drought phase.
Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in normal drought phase.
The early warning bulletin indicated that acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties, with 884,464 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished.
A total of 115,725 cases of pregnant or lactating women are acutely malnourished and in need of treatment.
The weather outlook for August indicates that several parts of the ASAL (95 per cent) will be typically dry and sunny.
“Counties, including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Tana River counties, will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of coastal counties, with the exemption of the coastal strip of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties,” the authority said.
The bulletin said that pastoral North West counties, especially western strip of Turkana county, are expected to receive near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall.
"Most of the agro-pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties, which are expected to receive near-average rainfall,” the authority said.
The authority also said some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast conditions with light rainfall.
(edited by Amol Awuor)