Kenya and other parts of the Greater Horn of Africa region will most likely be drier than usual according to a new weather forecast for June through to September.
The IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre seasonal forecast released on Wednesday shows that Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Uganda, and much of South Sudan and Sudan are expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the season.
In a press statement released during the 64th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, ICPAC indicated an increased likelihood of warmer than usual conditions in some parts of the region.
They include northern Sudan, parts of southern and central to western Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya, central and northern Somalia, and coastal parts of Tanzania.
ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization.
“The JJAS rainfall season is particularly important for the northern regions of the GHA, where it contributes to more than 50 per cent of the annual total rainfall,” ICPAC director Dr. Guleid Artan said.
He said depressed rainfall, coupled with warmer than usual temperatures, are likely to affect crop productivity in the region, posing more risk to hunger stricken communities.
At least 49 million people are still highly-food insecure in the IGAD region.
Artan said the above average rainfall recorded during the March to May season in parts of Ethiopia, Keny and Somalia will however bring some respite to the communities most affected by five consecutive failed rainfall seasons.
ICPAC has further predicted a possible transition between La Niña and El Niño which may result in much wetter weather in the region towards the end of the year.
“It is now very likely that we will transition from La Niña to El Niño between July and September,” Hussein Seid, Climate Modelling Expert at ICPAC said.
Two weeks ago, the World Meteorological Organization, WMO, said there is a 60 per cent chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023.
The transition probability is set to increase to 80 percent between July and September.
El Niño, in general, is associated with depressed rainfall between June and September in the north of the region and wetter conditions between October and December in the equatorial parts.
