•Dr Gikungu said these rains are still adequate if farmers plant fast-growing or drought-resistant crops.
•El Nino, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, is associated with heavy rains in Kenya.
Image: WINNIE WANJIKU
Kenya is staring at a sixth unsuccessful rainy season in a row, with hopes now mostly resting on an El Nino event predicted to happen from August.
Meteorological services director David Gikungu said weather drivers show most parts of Kenya will receive depressed rains in the March-May season.
This is the main cropping season in Kenya but the rains will begin late, from the first week of April, in most areas.
He said these rains are still adequate if farmers plant fast-growing or drought-resistant crops.
“The country is already experiencing drought conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid counties, due to inadequate rainfall over the last five seasons,” Dr Gikungu said.
“A sixth consecutive failed rainy season will be devastating for the millions of people already suffering from the drought.”
Major global weather agencies are also pointing to an El Nino at the end of this year.
Dr Gikungu said if the El Nino comes, it can completely change the weather patterns in the short rains season in October, leading to extremely wet weather.
While giving the March-May weather forecast in Nairobi, the Meteorological services director said the long rains will be interspersed with long dry spells and storms.
“Despite the expected depressed rains, isolated incidences of storms that could cause flash floods are still likely to occur,” he said.
March to May period is the major rainfall season (long rains) over most parts of Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa.
The highest seasonal rainfall amounts are normally recorded over the Lake Victoria basin, the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the central and south Rift Valley, the highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi) and the coastal strip.
The forecast shows temperatures will remain above average over the whole country and higher in northwestern Kenya, and parts of the Rift Valley.
Specifically, the long rains will begin the third week of March in Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Kisii, Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Nyamira, Baringo and Nakuru counties, including eastern parts of Laikipia, western parts of Narok and western parts of Turkana.
This region, which covers Kenya’s breadbasket, will receive depressed rainfall, which will continue into June.
Mt Kenya area, including Nairobi, will receive highly depressed rainfall, the forecast shows.
This region comprises Nairobi, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyandarua and eastern parts of Laikipia. The rains will reach there the last week of March, or early April and end in the second or third week of May.
Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, eastern parts of Marsabit and Samburu will also receive highly depressed rainfall. It is not even known when the rains are likely to begin there.
Dr Gikungu also said Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta will experience highly depressed rainfall, beginning the first to the second week of April and ending the second to the third week of May.
The Coast counties are expected to receive highly depressed rainfall from the second week of April, continuing into June.
However, Kwale and Mombasa could get rain from first week of April.
Only western Marsabit, Kajiado and the western parts of Narok are expected to receive normal rainfall.
“The forecasted depressed rainfall during the months of March to May is expected to deteriorate the prevailing drought conditions over most of the arid and semi-arid regions of northern and eastern Kenya which could lead to unprecedented impacts,” Dr Gikungu said.
The Met department said most global models suggest that an El Nino event is likely toward the end of this year.
El Nino, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, is associated with heavy rains in Kenya.
“The World Meteorological Organization and key global climate centres have indicated that sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial central Pacific Ocean are likely to return to neutral in the coming months, with El Niño development being the most likely outcome by June - August 2023,” Dr Gikungu said.
Pacific Ocean holds 97 per cent of the total water on the planet; accounts for 78 per cent of global ocean precipitation; and is the source of 86 per cent of global evaporation.
This gives it an outsize influence on weather and climate across the globe.
In Kenya, the weather is also influenced by the Indian Ocean dipole, which refers to the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas (or poles, hence a dipole) of the ocean.