DON'T PANIC

Experts link rise in Covid-19 to weather changes, new variants

Number of patients under home care has been on an upward trajectory

In Summary

• The positivity rate went up to between 1.6 and 2.1 per cent in mid-October before shooting further above the World Health Organization recommendation.

• Some of these subvariants are subclinical, which means, a person may have signs and symptoms that are less pronounced and hence are going unnoticed.

A health official takes samples for Covid-19 testing in Garissa.
COVID TESTING: A health official takes samples for Covid-19 testing in Garissa.
Image: File

There has been a rise in the Covid-19 positivity, with the highest percentage being recorded in the last one week, data from the Ministry of Health shows.

Experts have attributed the current rise of infections in the country to the change in weather and new variants.

According to the data, the positivity rate went up to between 1.6 and 2.1 per cent in mid-October before shooting above the World Health Organization recommendation of below five per cent in the last week of October.

WHO recommends that the positivity rate be maintained at below five per cent for a consistent period of more than 14 days, if a country wishes to relax its containment protocols.

“The weather has changed to be wet and of course we know respiratory tract infections would increase with such changes. It is not Kenya, it is all over the world,” Health CEC Bernard Muia said.

He said there is a global concern about the mutations occasioned with omicron.

“Fortunately enough the mutation of this omicron is not causing serious conditions in terms of morbidity and mortality, so I would say there is no serious cause for alarm as far as infections are concerned,” Muia said.

According to the medic, some of these subvariants are subclinical, which means, a person may have signs and symptoms that are less pronounced and hence are going unnoticed.

The positivity rate has been relatively low in the last few months with data showing the percentage was at 0.9 at the beginning of October.

According to daily reports by the ministry, the rate was 6.8 per cent on October 26, 7.5 per cent on 27th, eight per cent on 28th, 7.9 per cent on 29th before dropping to 1.9 per cent on 30th.

It then went up to 7.5 per cent on Monday and shot to a record high of 9.5 per cent on Tuesday.

The data further shows that though the number of admissions has been relatively low, the number has also been going up from just one person admitted in hospital mid-October to six people as at Tuesday.

“I would like people to keep having the vaccine and observing the protocols because they also assist us not to get respiratory tract infections. Washing hands also helps us not to get cholera,” Muia said.

However, the number of patients under the home based care programme has been on an upward trajectory from 15 people on October 10 to close to 500 as at Tuesday.

For instance, the number of those under the HBC management went up to 113 on October 17, 218 on 21st, 319 on 26th, 370 on 27th, 413 on 31st and 498 on Tuesday.

To date, total confirmed positive cases are 339,253 with cumulative tests so far conducted standing at 3,919,622.

“Total recoveries stands at 333,071 of whom 279,451 are from the HBC and isolation programme, while 53,620 are from various health facilities across the country,” the ministry reports show.

The number of fatalities has also remained relatively low. To date, 5,678 have succumbed to the virus since it struck the country in 2020.

Kenya was hit by the sixth Covid wave in June after the cases rose sharply, prompting the then CS Mutahi Kagwe to reimpose a number of containment measures that had been relaxed.

Kagwe called for strict adherence to Covid-19 containment measures, including wearing of face masks in matatus.

The ministry had warned that the situation was likely to get worse as the country enters into the cold season that began in June.

The cold season was predicted to last till November and an anticipated rise in cases of respiratory diseases.

Dr Moses Owino, a Public Health expert from the ministry said the target is to ensure most Kenyans get vaccinated for the attainment of herd immunity.

"The hope is that more people will accept to be vaccinated and move our coverage to a higher level," he said.

Owino however said most Kenyans think Covid-19 is over.

“As we speak there are people who are currently in hospital affected and infected by Covid-19," he said.

"However, the critical thing we have observed with Covid-19 is that it has a complication rate of 0.3 to one per cent, so one in 100 people will get severe disease.” 

(Edited by Bilha Makokha)

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