- Fertiliser and fuel prices have also reached all-time high, both in the global and domestic markets, casting a serious shadow on 2022 cereal harvests.
- A report estimates that cereal production during the 2022 cropping year could potentially decrease by 16 per cent year on year.
Production of cereals in the country is likely to plummet this year due to the high cost of fertiliser and fuel prices, a new report has said.
The report on the expected impact of increased fertiliser prices on 2022 cereal production in Eastern Africa was released Thursday by the World Food Programme Regional Bureau for Eastern Africa.
The report estimates that cereal production during the 2022 cropping year could potentially decrease by 16 per cent year on year.
The report says the cost of fertiliser, availability of alternatives to fertiliser and weather patterns have negative effects on fertiliser use.
It says applying a relatively small amount of mineral fertiliser can have a major impact on crop yields.
“Studies in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi and Ethiopia have shown that yields of maize, rice, cowpeas and millet could be doubled through the judicious use of fertilisers," the report says.
The price of fertilisers in Kenya increased by more than Sh1,000 in 2021, threatening the country's food security.
The prices doubled during the long rains planting season of March-April-May as the cost of a 50kg bag of DAP fertiliser shot from Sh2,500 in April 2021 to Sh5,000 in November.
The government however moved in by setting aside Sh5.7 billion for fertiliser subsidies.
The money was utilised in subsidising 114,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser (2,280,000 50kg bags) for crops to enhance food security.
The report says Sudan has the largest annual fertiliser consumption in the region (300,000) followed by Uganda (100,000), Ethiopia (70,000 Mt) and Kenya (40,000 Mt).
It further says the yearly fertiliser demand for the rest of the countries is below 50,000 Mt.
The report says the three top fertiliser consumers also lead the pack in per capita demand and use.
The use of fertilisers is currently highest in Ethiopia (55.5 per cent), Kenya (31.4 per cent) and Sudan (31.4 per cent), but lower in the remaining countries (below 5 per cent), the report shows.
The report says this implies that Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan have the highest risk of fertiliser shortages and price hikes compared to their other counterparts in Eastern Africa.
It adds that a 50kg of DAP fertiliser was Sh5,850 while CAN went for Sh3,600 in 2022.
Based on these assumptions, there is about a 38 per cent reduction in crop production in the scenario of a 100 per cent increase in fertiliser prices.
The report says the total 2022 cereal production will be about 37.8 million Mt, down from 45.2 million Mt in 2021.
There is also a likelihood of the number of food-insecure people in the region rising by nearly 6-7 million by the end of the year solely because of the reduced crop production, fertiliser price increase and the attendant reduction in use, according to the report.
The highest decline in cereal production will be in Ethiopia (21 per cent), Kenya (12 per cent) and Sudan (16 per cent) while marginal reduction in the rest of the countries given the relatively low use of fertilisers by the latter.
This implies that fertiliser price inflation will likely increase food insecurity in these countries more than in the rest.
In addition to the fertiliser impacts on crops, parts of the region (Eastern Horn of Africa) are facing a fourth consecutive drought that has affected crop production.
The regions affected include Southern Ethiopia, marginal agricultural areas of Kenya, Somalia and parts of Karamoja and Northern Uganda.
The report says the reduced domestic cereal availability will likely result in more food imports to bridge the gap.
The imports will put additional pressure on already weaker local currency, resulting in higher food inflation in the short run and adding to food security concerns.
The Kenyan government is already in the process of importing maize to plug the deficit.
A gazette notice issued on May 20 allowed the importation of not more than 540,000 metric tonnes of duty-free white non-GMO maize on or before August.
The report says since the onset of the Ukraine crisis, there has been a hike in fuel prices region-wide, except in Djibouti where they are relatively stable because of strict price controls.
There has also been a hike in fuel prices region-wide, according to the report, rising by 17-75 per cent in April 2022 year-on-year, the steepest increase was observed in Burundi, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan.
This has impacted farmer’s ability to use farm machinery and transport and will further reduce their ability to grow sufficient crops this year.
(edited by Amol Awuor)