Why Uhuru is Ruto's new headache

President Uhuru Kenyatta's aggressive performance on the political stage could upset his deputy William Ruto's strategy and potentially dismantle Kenya Kwanza's political arithmetic.

Uhuru on Wednesday began mobilising his Mt Kenya political backyard to support ODM leader Raila Odinga and openly linked Ruto to mega corruption, saying he is not fit to lead.

Ruto responded by simply saying he accepts the President's decision to endorse Raila. 

“I respect the decision of the President to say he supports the person who has never voted for him, who has never supported him. There is no problem. Let us relax now," Ruto said in Kitui on Thursday.

Although Uhuru's influence across the country remains in dispute, analysts say Ruto could be in trouble if the President mobilises at least 40 per cent of his backyard to support Raila.

“If Ruto's support in Mt Kenya comes to less than 60 per cent there is no way Ruto is going to be President,"political analyst Martin Andati said.

He said with Uhuru's move to step out and openly campaign for Raila, the DP faces tough times in consolidating the Mt Kenya vote basket.

Direct confrontation with Uhuru could also be counter-productive and unpresidential as Uhuru is not a candidate in the August polls

“I am aware that my friend, the President of the Republic of Kenya, has decided in his democratic right to support my competitor. I respect his decision and opinion,” the DP said.

Observers said Ruto needs to replicate what the Jubilee Party garnered in the 2013 and 2017 polls to remain formidable in the presidential race.

In both elections, Uhuru in a joint ticket with Ruto swept Mt Kenya's votes, securing an average of 95 per cent of the votes from all the region's 10 counties, including Nakuru. 

However, recent polls suggest there is a huge chunk of undecided voters in Mt Kenya region that could potentially make it a swing vote.

According to a Tifa poll, the undecided voters stand at 20 per cent.

Mt Kenya has a combined vote bloc of 5.85 million votes, including diaspora Nakuru county.

This means there are nearly 1.2 million undecided voters.

Analysts have said this population represents the DP's Waterloo if they are swayed to support Raila.

Two recent opinion polls have shown that Ruto’s popularity in Mt Kenya is waning and Raila's increasing despite the DP's aggressive campaigns in the region backed by strong anti-Jubilee rhetoric. 

An opinion poll done by Tifa indicates  Ruto’s confidence rating in the President's turf had fallen from a high of 53 per cent in December to 49 per cent. 

On the other hand, Raila has enhanced his fortunes in Mt Kenya to stand at 16 per cent up from 10 per cent in December.

Another poll by Radio Africa Group suggests Raila’s support in Mt Kenya has climbed up to 27 per cent up from 25.1 per cent. 

Ruto’s rating was at 57.1 per cent, down from 59.8 per cent in January.

This is a far cry from the more than 80 per cent support analysts say he requires to easily beat Raila. 

University don Prof Macharia Munene said Ruto must work hard to consolidate his support in Mt Kenya to beat Raila.

"Any significant flip would be disastrous for the DP's ambitions," the don said, adding that Uhuru's push for Raila will also jolt Ruto.

"The battle will be won or lost in Mt Kenya," he said.

Raila could this weekend ink a political deal with Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka to consolidate Kalonzo's Ukambani backyard.

The development could unsettle Ruto who is eyeing Ukambani to shore up his State House chances.

While the extent of the impact of Uhuru's endorsement of Raila remains unclear, politicians said the President's move would deal Ruto a blow.

Lugari MP Ayub Savula told the Star Uhuru has started a political war that will vanquish Ruto and take him to opposition benches.

"Uhuru is speaking directly to his people, Ruto has no capacity to fight back at the President; in fact, he will lose out," he said.

But Ruto allies say Uhuru's political moves are inconsequential as Mt Kenya long ago moved to Ruto's UDA.

Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua even claimed Uhuru cannot hold an open rally in Central to endorse Raila; he only wants to speak to a vetted audience. 

"We invite him to hold a public meeting where there are no vetted people and repeat what he said [about Ruto],"Gachagua said after the President spoke.

Kieni MP Kanini Kega said the DP should brace for tough times.

“The President’s remarks cannot be in vain, the ramifications will be sweeping for Ruto and his team in the coming weeks in Mt Kenya," he said.

Ruto could be pushed to the wall with recent surveys showing his fortunes, especially in Mt Kenya, are dwindling.

For instance, Uhuru 's move to embrace small parties in the region could unsettle Ruto.

Ruto has insisted that his United Democratic Alliance party will not enter into coalitions with small parties, branding them as 'tribal.'

Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria has differed with Ruto over this and pledged not to fold up his Chama Cha Kazi to join UDA.

The Service Party leader Mwangi Kiunjuri has also stuck to his guns, severing links with Ruto.

The President's declaration, therefore, appears to appease these small parties.

Raila has said he has no problem working with small parties, with at least 10 of them set to join his Azimio La Umoja this weekend.

Ruto could face a delicate balancing act on how to undermine the government and Raila without railing at his boss. 

Prof Munene said it is unlikely Ruto would come out forcefully to face off with Uhuru.

"I don’t think there is much quarrel between the two men, the President said, and Ruto has admitted, that they disagreed on what next after the handshake,” he said. 

Nominated MP Maina Kamanda, an ally of Uhuru, said the President had driven the last nail on Ruto’s political coffin. 

“If his support had fallen from 80 per cent to 50 per cent, Uhuru’s statement will take that to below the50 per cent mark in the coming weeks,” Kamanda said. 

(Edited by V. Graham)