- Ruto has clashed with his boss but has remained defiant, threatening to dislodge the President in his own Mt Kenya backyard.
- Ruto has all but decamped from the ruling Jubilee party for UDA, a party he has described as national outfit.
Image: FILE
President Uhuru Kenyatta, his deputy William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga top the list of the bigwigs and influential people to watch in 2022 as the country holds the general election.
One Kenya Alliance, Mt Kenya Unity Forum, Chief Justice Martha Koome and IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati are also among the groupings and individuals that could shape the year.
Others are Interior CS Fred Matiang'i, Inspector General of the Police Hillary Mutyambai and National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi.
Though constitutionally barred from participating in the polls, observers say President Kenyatta remains the top person to watch as his choice, or lack of it, to influence his succession would affect the political matrix.
Uhuru has bitterly fallen out with his deputy and appears to be campaigning against his election in favour of Raila – his handshake partner.
On December 1, Uhuru, in an apparent reference to the DP, warned Kenyans against electing Ruto whom he described as a man in a hurry to take over reins of power.
“You can start early (campaigns) with speed but before long, you get tired and the person you branded old will come at his pace and overtake you,” the President said in Nakuru
Political commentator Mark Bichachi, governance expert Javas Bigambo and university don Macharia Munene opined that the President’s influence in the upcoming polls cannot be gainsaid.
“Though people think his star has dimmed, there is still a huge proportion that he controls. Even if you reduce his support to 20 per cent, that is a lot and it can change the scales of any election,” Bichachi said.
“Where he puts his hands will be very critical, similar to what [former US President] Barack Obama did for [President] Joe Biden,” he added.
The real focus, however, will be on Ruto and Raila. They are the top contenders in the bruising battle to succeed Uhuru.
All opinion polls have placed the duo at the pole positions. They command massive following in the country as they have heightened their campaigns to outdo each other.
“They are frontrunners by a mile. Those are the two people who are most likely to be president based on polls, probability and history of this country,” Bichachi said.
Political observer Charles Munyui concurred.
“Raila and Ruto are the key people to watch,” he opined.
The DP has clashed with his boss but has remained defiant, threatening to dislodge the President in his own Mt Kenya backyard.
He has all but decamped from the ruling Jubilee Party for UDA, an outfit he has described as national on whose ticket he will seek the country’s top seat.
“He [Ruto] will be the first second in command who cannot authoritatively campaign on the platform of his government impeccable development record because it is hard to lay claim to the same having worked on parallels with the President,” Munyui said.
“Ruto is under his on drive and pressure to disprove President Kenyatta that even without his support, he can win,” Bigambo said.
Munyui reckoned that Raila, who will be making his fifth stab at the presidency, has in a rare occasion appeared to be enjoying the support of the incumbent and also appears to be penetrating the vote rich Mt Kenya that has evaded him for decades.
“He has also never in his political career gone for the Mt Kenya vote. In fact, he has always dismissed the region, at best ignored it,” he said.
Unlike previous elections, Raila has escalated charm offensive of the Central Kenya region, securing the endorsement of key groupings and a section of political leaders from the region.
The former Prime Minister is said to be keen to pick a running mate from the region.
Image: DENNIS KAVISU
The pundits opine that One Kenya Alliance principals are the other key forces that will be keenly watched as the country heads to the polls.
They are Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya) and Gideon Moi (Kanu). While the team is yet to name a presidential candidate — even though they have maintained they’ll support one of their own at the ballot — the observers say they have the hallmark of shaping the outcome of the elections should they remain united.
“Even if they decide to run by themselves, they can cost someone that plus one. So, they are going to be quite significant in the race,” Bichachi reckoned.
Mudavadi and Wetang'ula enjoy substantial support in their Western turf, while Kalonzo has single handedly controlled close to two million votes in his Ukambani backyard.
In both the 2013 and 2017 elections, the Wiper boss delivered the Ukambani vote bloc to Raila almost to a man.
There have been reports that Raila and Ruto have been reaching out to the Oka bosses, but the same has been refuted by the principals.
This is the case with the Mt Kenya Unity Forum headed by Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua.
The team comprises Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria, former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo and TSP leader Mwangi Kiunjuri, among other top politicians, who could influence voting pattern in the region.
Speaker Muturi has remained defiant that he will be on the presidential ballot and it would be interesting to watch if he will control the vote rich Mt Kenya East.
Image: FILE
Eyes will also be on the IEBC boss. Its will be keenly watched how Chebukati will steer the commission amid the political pressure to deliver a free, fair and credible election.
Chebukati will be keen to avoid the embarrassment he and his commission endured in 2017, when the Supreme Court nullified the presidential election and indicted the IEBC for conducting it contrary to the constitution and the law.
“Kenyans will be keen on how he captains his team to deliver a free and fair election beyond the indictment they faced from the Supreme Court when it overturned the presidential election,” Bigambo said.
Already, the IEBC chairman has pulled out of the multi-agency committee on election preparedness chaired by CJ Koome, saying the committee takes away the roles of the commission and its independence.
Koome will also be on the public eye on how her Supreme Court handles the presidential election petition, in the event a candidate files a case before her court and how she will guide the Judiciary in the handling other petitions.
Image: KARANJA KIBICHO/TWITTER
CS Matiang'i and IG Mutyambai will also be closely watched on how they direct the security apparatus during the campaigns and elections.
Already, Ruto allies have trained the guns on Matiang'i, raising concerns about his involvement in the transition elections.
In the previous elections, the security docket has been blamed over bias and brutality of opposition leaders and their supporters.
“Matiang'i as the CS for Interior is to be keenly watched, as he coordinates the security sector toward the elections,” Bigambo said.
“Will his ministry be inclined towards any candidate? His operations will be of great national interest,” he added.