Experts have predicted the dry season will set in next month across Kenya.
The forecast shows the current depressed rains will end early next month, except in pockets of Western Kenya, Rift Valley and Central Kenya.
The forecast was released by the Dagoretti-corner based IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre.
The centre also predicted an unusually warm weather next month.
“Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of the region, with higher chances over most of Kenya, parts of Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Tanzania,” the forecast says.
The same conditions are expected to drag into February, the forecast shows.
The centre's forecasts cover the entire of Horn of Africa region.
The latest prediction comes days after the Kenya Meteorological Department appealed to Kenyans to conserve water, saying there’s no substantial rains coming.
“We are now in a drought situation. And it is not just in Kenya but it’s affecting most of East Africa,” KMD director Bernard Chanzu told the Star early this week.
“This condition will continue until the end of the year. You will have occasional storms which will disappear. It will not change much.”
He said in August, the Met issued the October-December seasonal forecast, clearly indicating there was going to be extremely low rainfall in the eastern parts of Kenya and drastically reduced rain in Western Kenya.
“This is what we’re seeing now,” he said.
He said the dry weather is caused by two factors.
First is the La Nina, which refers to a change in global atmospheric circulation that affects weather around the world, bringing dry conditions to East Africa.
“We’re in a La Nina condition, which is expected to go on past December,” Chanzu said.
He said the La Nina may become neutral or start decaying at the end of January. This means the current weather is likely to continue until then.
“We also have the Indian ocean Dipole. When it’s positive we benefit. Currently, it’s neutral so it has no effect in our weather. We’re now driven by La Nina conditions.”
At the same time, a food research agency said Kenyans may have to dig deeper into their pockets to buy food in the next two months.
Timothy Njagi, a senior researcher at Tegemeo Institute, warned that food prices may go up from January due to a combination of issues.
He attributed this to a number of issues, among them, drought, depressed short rains, international food supply shock and protection policies by a number of countries.
“One of the reasons is the high cost of food globally due to Covid-19 pandemic, which led to low production...hence the high prices being experienced on inputs such as fertiliser,” Njagi said.
A 50kg bag of DAP fertiliser has gone up from Sh3,000 last season to Sh4,500 to Sh5,000 this season.
He said some countries like China are stock piling food like maize and wheat in anticipation of a shortage next year.
