The weather outlook for the October, November, and December short rains season indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience depression.
Kenya Meteorological Department director Stella Aura said in the highlights that the condition will be driven by near to below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline).
This will be coupled with warmer than average SSTs over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia).
Aura said that most of the global climate and weather forecasting models predict La Nina condition is likely to develop over the season.
She said that the distribution of the rainfall in time and space is expected to be generally poor over most areas especially during the month of October and the peak month of November.
“In the month of December, rainfall reduction is expected over several places in the country as the season draws to an end,” Aura said.
The temperature forecast indicates that warmer than average temperatures are likely over most parts of the country during the season.
There are also enhanced probabilities for warmer than average temperatures in Eastern Kenya.
The prediction comes as the government continue to step up measures to caution Kenyans from the areas affected by drought in the country.
The drought follows the poor performance of two consecutive rainy seasons and a forecast for below average rains for October – December 2021.
On September 8, the government declared the ongoing drought situation a national disaster, calling for relevant ministries to initiate emergency assistance including water, food distribution and livestock uptake.
More than 12 counties might be affected by the condition.
September weather review
Several parts of the country will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions during the month of September.
However, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central Rift Valley are likely to experience near average rainfall.
Occasional light morning showers are expected along the Coastal Strip while the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County) are likely to experience occasional afternoon showers as well as cloudy conditions in the mornings especially at the beginning of the month.
Sunny and dry conditions are likely to prevail over the Northeastern, Southeastern and the Coastal regions throughout the month.
