- 50 per cent of those polled believe Raila Odinga’s main motivation for resolutely backing the initiative is to increase his chances of becoming president.
- 29 per cent of respondents said President Uhuru Kenyatta was supporting the initiative to influence his succession.
Image: PSCU
Handshake proponents will have a herculean task fighting negative public perceptions of BBI should they succeed to overturn the High Court ruling that declared it unconstitutional.
A new poll shows most Kenyans believe the push to amend the Constitution is driven by the desire to influence the 2022 polls.
“A clear plurality of Kenyans [43%] perceive the main motivation behind the push for the BBI reforms as related to efforts to influence the outcome of the next election," the survey says.
The poll by research firm Tifa indicates that 50 per cent of those polled believe Opposition chief Raila Odinga’s main motivation for resolutely backing the initiative is to increase his chances of becoming president.
On the other hand, 29 per cent of respondents said President Uhuru Kenyatta supports the initiative to influence his succession.
The poll was conducted between June 24 and June 28— just a day before the big legal battle to save the BBI process commenced in the Court of Appeal.
Uhuru and Raila have consistently said they engineered the BBI process to end electoral violence, build national unity and strengthen devolution.
The second most frequently mentioned motivation is their desire to build national unity.
A little portion of the public, though, believes Raila and Uhuru seek to use BBI to fix certain errors in the Constitution, with the latter being motivated by a desire to leave a good legacy.
Two per cent of the 1,500 respondents in the survey said the President wants to use the BBI to try to make people think that he doesn’t want DP Ruto to be the next president.
The poll also shows that the majority of Kenyans would vote to reject the BBI if a referendum was held on the constitutional amendments before the 2022 general election.
The Tifa poll revealed that 31 per cent of those polled said they would vote No to the proposed changes.
Research analyst Tom Wolf said this means that as of now, almost twice as many Kenyans say they would vote no to reject the BBI bill compared to those who would vote yes to approve it.
Only a paltry 19 per cent said they would vote to approve the bill, while 18 per cent said they wouldn't vote at all.
However, the poll also shows that there remain many Kenyans who are still undecided who could be the swing vote if the vote was held.
The poll shows that 14 per cent of Kenyans are still undecided whether to vote yes or no, while 11 per cent are undecided whether to vote at all.
The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.53 per cent.
The survey, which ended last Monday, revealed that the BBI has more support among members of ODM than it does among those of Jubilee and UDA.
The majority of ODM supporters declared their intention to vote yes at 59 per cent, way higher than Jubilee Party’s 25 per cent support.
Notably, 31 per cent of Jubilee supporters said they would vote no to disapprove the bill, with UDA accounting for the majority who would vote no at 57 per cent.
“Jubilee supporters occupy an intermediate position on this issue,” the Tifa report reads.
The survey further revealed that ODM supporters view BBI as an effort by both politicians and citizens to solve or at least address the situation in the country.
More UDA supporters, however, believe that the BBI is mainly an effort by certain politicians to control or at least influence the 2022 presidential election.
Increased budgetary allocation to counties – 35 per cent of the national share of revenue - emerged as the main reason for the support of BBI, as well as the creation of the Ward Development Fund.
The proposal to create additional 70 constituencies equally motivated the yes vote at eight per cent of the polled respondents.
The proposed creation of the post of Prime Minister and two deputies, implementation of the two-thirds gender rule, strengthened CDF, enhanced national unity, and expedited prosecution of corruption cases are the main BBI support drivers.
However, overall, only about one-third of Kenyans – about 34 per cent - currently support changes to the Constitution before next year’s election, by any means.
More than half of the citizenry, as per the survey, don’t support the changes if they are to happen before the next election.
The survey further revealed that Nyanza and Coast regions are the most positive about BBI changes coming into force before the election.
In what may puncture President Uhuru Kenyatta’s hopes of cementing his legacy, residents of his Central backyard and Northeastern were found to be the least positive about the BBI.
In Nyanza where BBI is shown to enjoy more support, only 50 per cent of the residents are enthusiastic about the process.
Coast has 40 per cent in support compared to 42 per cent against the drive; Northeastern has more than 76 per cent opposed to the same.
The BBI has more support in Deputy President William Ruto’s Rift Valley backyard at 31 per cent compared to Central where it has 27 per cent.
In what should worry the political bigwigs banking on the BBI to make a comeback in 2022, the numbers for no are higher than those saying yes in Nairobi, Western, Rift Valley and Eastern.
Compared with the trends in December last year, the number of people in support has dropped from the initial 42 per cent, while those saying no have increased from 46 per cent to 50 per cent.
The survey further reveals that more Kenyans – at 47 per cent - know nothing about the BBI, the number being higher among females.
Regionally, Northeastern has more than half of its population knowing nothing about the BBI at 50 per cent, same rate for Rift Valley and Eastern.
Wolf said the slight drop in the proportion of all Kenyans who would like to see any changes could be as a result of the May 4 High Court ruling.
In the decision, a five-judge bench overturned President Kenyatta and Raila Odinga’s bid to amend the country’s 11-year-old Constitution.
The court said the President had no authority to bring forward the proposed amendments among them to expand the Executive and create more constituencies.
Only six per cent of Kenyans ‘know a great deal’ of the BBI Bill content while 47 per cent of those polled said they know nothing; 29 per cent said they know ‘only a little’ whereas 16 per cent know ‘something’.
In terms of setting, urban dwellers are slightly more familiar with the BBI content than are their rural counterparts.
At least seven per cent of Kenyans reported that they have participated in the BBI process in some way, though 21 per cent say they personally know someone who has.
“The reported participation levels for both categories are considerably higher among men than women, as well as slightly so for urban as opposed to rural resident,” the report reads.
On likelihood of a referendum before the 2022 election, at least 34 per cent of Kenyans believe it is not likely to happen at all, with only eight per cent saying they are certain it would happen.
Edited by Henry Makori