The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country has been on an upward trajectory, with the positivity rate also shooting to more than five per cent.
The World Health Organisation recommends that the rate should be below five per cent for a consistent period of at least 14 days for a country to be seen as having flattened their curve.
Last Saturday for instance, the rate was 12.1 per cent after 633 people tested positive for the virus from a sample size of 5, 193. The rate was 7.7 per cent on Friday and 8.3 per cent on Thursday.
With the current surge in cases, it is feared that the country is headed to a third wave.
Health experts say the severity of the third wave will depend on future Covid-19 variants.
Although there is no evidence that the 510Y.V2 variant found in South Africa is more deadly, studies show that the new variant is 50 per cent more contagious than earlier versions.
The variant has since been reported in Kenya alongside other countries, with the government maintaining high alert especially at the ports of entry and border points to detect the new variants.
Already, the Kenya Medical Research Institute has projected that the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths is likely to peak in mid-March.
In the most feasible scenario, the country is likely to record between 106,000 and 168,000 new Covid-19 cases and at least 116 more deaths by June 1 this year.
The projected surge in numbers is attributed to the reopening of schools on January 4, a move that has been considered as the cause of the rise in the transmission rate by 25 per cent.
The emergence of the new Covid-19 strain is also expected to cause a surge in the number of new cases and deaths by 25 per cent.
The arrival of the first batch of 1.02 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine in the country last week shows that there is hope.
However, with a phased rollout that will see healthcare workers and other essential service providers such as teachers and the armed forces being inoculated first, Kenyans will be required to continue to adhere to the virus containment measures already in place.
They include social distancing, wearing masks in public places, avoiding crowds and sanitising or continued washing of hands.
The vaccine is not a silver bullet, the government will have to reach at least a third of the population with the jab to attain herd immunity.
