Presidential hopefuls have probably learnt from past by-elections that the candidates they sponsor in one way or the other leave them with egg on face in case of defeat.
Potential ones like Deputy President William Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi must, therefore, approach by-elections carefully, knowing that dismal performances weigh heavily on their personal ambitions.
ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political gravitas, for example, was dented by defeats in Ugenya and Msambweni constituencies. It is not a welcome experience for any serious politician even though it offers valuable lessons for those interested in improving their relationships with voters.
In the upcoming by-elections, the results will show the bigwigs' ability to successfully mobilise support and whether they have the political capital to warrant their invitation to the negotiating table, especially when it comes to the formation of alliances.
The Machakos, Matungu and Kabuchai polls have already led to an alliance that brings on board Mudavadi, Kalonzo, Kanu chairman Gideon Moi and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya).
The quartet has rallied behind joint candidates to boost their chances of victory. The future of this alliance will depend on the results of the polls. Victories will bolster their confidence in the lead-up to the 2022 contest.
In effect, the upcoming by-elections are slowly shaping the 2022 succession politics, with key players keen to come up with political outfits capable of delivering victory in next year's general election.
Those whose candidates fail will have to go back to the drawing board and might find it difficult convincing Kenyans that they are worthy presidential contenders, especially if they suffer losses in their backyards.
This would portend a bleak future for them and might lower their bargaining power.
The political analyst spoke to the Star
