The numbers: Pro-Ruto impeachment forces face acid test

Impeaching Deputy President William Ruto will not be easy, certainly not a walk in the park, an analysis of parliamentary strength of the top politicians shows.

MPs allied to President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM chief Raila Odinga on Wednesday accused Ruto of undermining the President and challenged him to resign or risk being impeached.

The country's top political elite, including President Kenyatta, may be unable to kick out DP  Ruto from the government through impeachment, a parliamentary strength analysis shows. But they will lay out their arguments. 

In the Senate where the final decision on Ruto's removal would be sealed, a united force of five top political parties present the DP with the toughest survival chance.

However, lawmakers backing his removal must garner the magic 45 senators or two-thirds of members required under the law.

The grounds for impeaching the president or deputy president are the same: Violating the Constitution or written laws, gross misconduct, physical or mental inability. 

During the successful impeachment of ex-Kiambu governor Ferdinand Waititu where Ruto's bid to save him failed, the pro-Kenyatta faction managed 27 senators of the 39 who were present.

Twelve voted to rescue Waititu.

However, in Waititu's case, the Constitutional threshold was low as it required only approval by a simple majority. To impeach a deputy president requires two-thirds. 

The absence of a record 28 senators in the House during Waititu's impeachment present the two sides with a tricky affair.

The voting patterns in Waititu's impeachment gave a reflection of the numerical game in Parliament and the political allegiances playing out among lawmakers when faced with a decisive moment.

At the National Assembly where the impeachment motion must be initiated, the DP could mount a successful onslaught to survive the process.

A review of the numbers shows that a united front of parties pushing for his removal can easily manage 115 signatures required by law to table the impeachment motion in the House.

These are MPs allied to Uhuru, Raila Odinga (ODM), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Gideon Moi's Kanu.

The tabling of the motion will give the anti-Ruto brigade an opportunity to publicly prosecute him and shred his integrity ahead of the 2022 vote.

While explaining why Ruto should quite government, the impeachment crusaders accused Ruto of dishonesty, acquisition of unexplained wealth and unjust enrichment.

However, the trouble would be to get the impeachment motion to be supported by a two-thirds majority which translates to 233 MPs.

This means that Ruto requires at least 117 MPs on his side to quash the motion from proceeding to the Senate for a final vote.

“In the current political climate, mustering the two-thirds majority in the National Assembly would be doubtful,” Constitutional lawyer Joy Mdivo told the Star.

Political analyst Edward Kisiangani told the Star that impeaching Ruto is not as easy as “buying some mandazi from a roadside kiosk".

“Considering the ODM-led attack on the DP has been unpopular both in and outside Parliament, the two-thirds majority required to execute the impeachment is a tall order,” Kisiangani said.

There are also tough regulations on the impeachment of President, his deputy, Cabinet secretaries and constitutional office holders that pose another hurdle for proponents of Ruto's impeachment.

The conditions introduced by National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi in 2015 make it even harder for MPs seeking to initiate an impeachment motion.

The House regulations force impeachment motion initiators to first identify the grounds and then back them with evidence before the motion is submitted to the Speaker's office for scrutiny.

The speaker's office would then decide if the motion meets the required threshold before the proponents are allowed to collect signatures from members.

The speaker can veto an impeachment bid if the Parliamentary legal team is not satisfied with the evidence the proponents have tabled.

National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi is a close associate of President Kenyatta.

"On both fronts [Senate and National Assembly], the impeachment motion would be a waste of time and therefore dead on arrival,” Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria said.

The vocal politician claimed that it would be a tall order for anyone to successfully table an impeachment process against the DP whom he said enjoys the support of over 80 per cent of the lawmakers.

“Raila and his surrogates will suffer irreparable political damage and embarrassment of massive proportions if they dare make good their threat to table the motion,” the MP claimed.

The DP is seen as the political kingpin of the Rift Valley controls about eight counties.

These include Kericho, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet, all with a total of 20 constituencies.

Ruto also commands some support among MPs from other Rift Valley counties like Nakuru, Kajiado, Trans Nzoia, Narok and Samburu and Turkana, which all have 52 constituencies.

Baringo Senator Gideon Moi's Kanu has only six MPs from the Rift Valley.

These are Tiaty constituency (William Kamket), Alois Musa Lentoimaga (Samburu north), Josephine Naisula Lesuuda (Samburu west) and Lentoi Lekumontare (Samburu East), Sailas Tiren (Moiben) and Gladwell Cheruiyot (Nominaed). 

The DP also enjoys considerable support among Mt Kenya region's 54 MPs.

However, Mt Kenya is an unpredictable region where the president also controls significant support across the eight counties.

Some of the vocal MPs from Mt Kenya opposed to Ruto include Kanini Kega (Kieni), Ngunjiri Wambugu (Nyeri Town), Sabina Chege (Murang'a), Gathoni Wa'Muchomba (Kiambu) and Paul Koinange( Kiambaa).

At the Coast region, about nine MPs are supporting Ruto.

These include Aisha Jumwa (Malindi), Khatib Mwashetani (Lunga Lunga), Owen Baya (Kilifi North), Paul Katana (Kaloleni) and Michael Kingi (Magarini), Ali Mohamed (Nyali), Badi Twalib ( Jomvu), Sharif Ali (Lamu East), Gertrude Mbeyu (Kilifi).

In Western Kenya, where the DP has made forays, a section of the region's 33 MPs support the deputy President across the four counties.

Some of the MPs from the region supporting Ruto include Benjamin Washiali (Mumias East), John Waluke (Sirisia), Didmas Barasa (Kimilili), Dan Wanyama (Webuye West), Benard Shinali (Ikolomani), Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo), Malulu Njendi(Malava) and Janet Nangabo (Trans Nzoia).

However, ODM leader Raila Odinga and ANC's Musalia Mudavadi control the region's politics.

Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang'ula could easily find a soft spot with Ruto. He voted alongside senators who opposed Waititu's impeachment motion in January.

In Nairobi's 17 constituencies, Ruto commands at least six MPs.

Among them are  George Theuri (Embakasi West), Charles Njagua (Starehe), James Gakuya (Embakasi North), Waihenya Ndirangu (Roysambu), Nixon Korir(Lang'ata) and John Kiarie (Dagoretti South).

In Kisii, Ruto also enjoys the support of about six MPs.

These are Sylvanus Osoro 9South Mugirango), Alpha Miruka (Bomachoge Chache), Richard Tong'i (Nyaribari Chache), Innocent Obiri (Bobasi), Joash Nyamoko (North Mugirango) and West Mugirango MP Vincent Kemosi.

In the Ukambani region tightly controlled by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Ruto has made significant forays in the 22 constituencies cutting across the three counties in the region.

He enjoys the support of Victor Munyaka (Machakos Town), Vincent Musyoka (Mwala), Rachael Mbai (Kitui South) and Fabian Kyule (Kangundo).

In the Northeastern region that has of late been drifting towards the handshake, Ruto would rely on Duale, the region's senior-most political leader lobby MPs.

There are four counties in the region.

The DP's defunct URP party commanded the region's politics in the 2013 polls with most of the lawmakers from the region having supported him.

However, the elevation of Ukuru Yattani has National Treasury CS could complicate the DP's fortune in the semi-arid region in case an impeachment motion is brought forward.

(Edited by V. Graham)