• Some analysts argue the ODM leader, who recently announced the death of Nasa — his election coalition in his unsuccessful 2017 bid — is likely to attract only amateur politicians
• However, Raila is yet to announce his candidature in the 2022 election though his allies have been pushing him to go for the top seat.
Image: FILE
ODM leader Raila Odinga is walking a tightrope with increasingly thinning political options as 2022 succession politics gains momentum.
Some analysts argue the ODM leader, who recently announced the death of Nasa — his election coalition in his unsuccessful 2017 bid — is likely to attract only amateur politicians in the run-up to the next polls as political heavyweights are wary of teaming up with him learning from past experiences.
Raila is, however, yet to announce his candidature in the 2022 General Election although his allies have been pushing him to go for the top seat for the fifth time.
“Nasa was a pre-election coalition, but if you have not won, that coalition automatically collapses,” the former Prime Minister said in an interview on Citizen TV last month.
This triggered anger in the moribund opposition coalition, with his co-principals — Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya) — either directly or through their allies accusing him of betraying and abandoning them.
This is not the first time the opposition chief is being accused of betraying old friends.
In the run-up to the 2013 polls, he was blamed for doing little to help his one-time ally William Ruto who was then facing crime against humanity charges at ay the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Ruto was part of the Raila’s ODM Pentagon in the 2007 elections, which ended in the worst bloodshed in the country’s political history.
According to political observers, the AU special envoy will be forced to cobble alliances with recent political initiates such as governors Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga) and Alfred Mutua (Machakos), as getting big names will be a tall order for him except for hardened politicians like Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega).
Nasa co-principals are all not keen on working with Raila again after the latest betrayal.
Wiper executive director Jared Siso told the Star that the former premier’s character of dumping loyal troops will soon catch up with him.
According to the university don, no leader will be willing to partner with Raila given his record of abandoning colleagues midway.
“This will haunt him and the rest of his cheer groups. As you know, we are headed to coalition building. I want to see a new partnership that does not want to learn from past experiences of a partner’s engagement with others,” he said on the phone.
To lawyer Danstan Omari, Raila cannot be ignored in as much as he has perfected dumping old friends after every election cycle.
“When you look at the elections of 2022, Baba seems to be running away from his old friends. He normally crafts alliances for special purpose vehicles for an election, sign MoUs and abandon those MoUs and party leaders,” Omari said.
“Any time you deal with Raila, the first thing (at the back of your mind) is that already, he has designed how to dump you. As you enter, the exit strategy for Baba is there. That is the problem that Baba (Raila) will face but will they ignore him? They will still follow him.”
Omari adds that even President Uhuru Kenyatta is not 100 per cent comfortable that he has a deal with the opposition leader because he is as 'unpredictable as the weather'.
“Raila occasionally has a chance because he has a constituency loyal to him. Hate him, like him, he always has a strong constituency. Two, his name is a brand name. Whether you know from the advance that he is a political con man, you have no other avenue... These guys go there knowing they will be butchered but they have no option.”
The ODM leader is now faced with the reality of grooming Mutua, Waiguru and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho.
His other allies include a host of ex-MPs from Mt Kenya, including Kabando wa Kabando (Mukurwe-ini).
But analyst Martin Andati said the eminent death of Nasa could spell doom for the ODM boss if he still harbours presidential ambitions in 2022. Raila, he says, may not have the same political strength, especially in Eastern and Western Kenya.
According to him, losing Kalonzo and Mudavadi will be a big blow because the duo still has ‘a big say’ politically in their zones.
“Though Nasa is dead, Raila cannot wish away Musalia and Kalonzo. Mutua and Kibwana might be second term governors and they have some votes in the region but they cannot rally the Kamba the way Kalonzo can,” Andati said.
“Remember what happened in 2013 when Mudavadi left Cord (Raila's election coalition). He got about 500,000 votes that could have essentially be his (Raila’s). That might repeat itself in 2022,” he added.
However, university don-cum-political commentator Herman Manyora downplayed the death of Nasa, saying Raila has already ‘prepared’ for 2022 through his handshake with President Kenyatta and the resultant Building Bridges Initiative.
Manyora said the BBI and handshake are political ‘monsters’ that will sweep the entire country and propel Raila to State House.
“Can there be a bigger political alliance than the BBI alliance? Raila already has a formidable alliance through the handshake. BBI is a monster. It can consume everybody,” he said.
While acknowledging that Nasa was a serious alliance, the University of Nairobi lecturer said BBI is big and will not only sweep Raila’s backyard but also Uhuru's and DP Ruto’s strongholds as well.
“If you are reading Central Kenya alone, you can see these guys have started making about-turn in these early days. When all of them will be facing Mt Kenya, what other votes does Raila need? Forget about what people are saying now in Mt Kenya. At the last moment when it matters, they will all face Mt Kenya,” he said.
“And if between Raila and Uhuru there is a game plan, then that is the outfit that will succeed. If Raila has Uhuru, what other alliance does he need?”