- Their ability to cobble formidable political machine has come into sharp scrutiny after dismal performance in Kibra
- But party spokesmen put a brave face, say the three are strategising and cannot be written off regarding the next election
Image: FILE
Three Opposition chiefs Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula face tough political options in 2022 following the imminent death of Nasa and dwindling support in their bastions.
The trio have all declared they will be gunning for the presidency in 2022.
However, their ability to cobble a formidable political machine has come into sharp scrutiny after dismal performance in the Kibra parliamentary by-election.
The poll has left little doubt that the 2022 presidential contest will be a grand match between arch-rivals ODM boss Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto.
In the just concluded poll, Kalonzo rallied behind Wetangula’s Ford Kenya candidate Khamisi Butichi who garnered a paltry 260 votes, earning them ridicule on social media.
“This is a polite reminder that Ford Kenya, with the backing of Wiper, managed only 260 votes in Kibra. Moses Wetangula and Kalonzo Musyoka, the leaders of Ford Kenya and Wiper respectively, were co-principals in NASA,” Denis Onyango, Raila’s spokesman, wrote in a sarcastic tweet.
Mudavadi’s ANC party sponsored veteran management consultant Eliud Owalo who came a distant third with 5,275 votes.
ODM’s Imran Okoth got a resounding victory with 24,636 votes followed by Ruto’s man, MacDonald Mariga, who garnered 11,230 votes.
All the three governors from Ukambani – Alfred Mutua (Machakos), Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and Charity Ngilu (Kitui) – who have all teamed up to chip away Kalonzo’s support backed ODM’s candidate.
The three have sent signals they would work with Raila in 2022 and warned of an impending political tsunami in Ukambani that will sweep away Kalonzo.
In 2017, Kalonzo lost many parliamentary seats to Jubilee, sending signals of his slackening political grip of the region.
Luhya bigwigs including Cotu boss Francis Atwoli and Mudavadi’s own MPs, Godfrey Otsotsi (nominated) and Cleopa Malala (Kakamega), traversed the slums campaigning for Okoth.
Political observers say the three are unable to make a consequential stab at the presidency on their own without the backing of some other political heavyweights.
Political analyst and university don Macharia Munene admitted that Kalonzo, Musalia and Wetang'ula are locked up in a delicate balancing act.
“The options are becoming thinner by the day. However, we have two-and-half years to the next General Election and a lot is bound to happen,” the USIU don told the Star.
Munene said while Wetang'ula is badly fighting for political relevance without attracting anyone's attention, Musalia and Kalonzo are left with some political arsenal.
“Musalia cannot be written off just yet. He is a man to watch. While Kalonzo has lost the political leadership, but he has some ground support,” he said.
The sudden crumbling of Nasa – the Opposition's 2017 political vehicle – and the rapidly shifting political landscape has boxed the three into a very difficult conundrum with thin options.
There are claims that Kalonzo is in talks with Deputy President William Ruto to seal a 2022 political pact.
Wiper has strongly denied the claims.
Osotsi told the Star Mudavadi’s political future is brighter in Raila’s camp as opposed to any other arrangement.
“There is still a chance for them to unite with Raila. The best option he has is to see how to work with Raila in 2022. That is the best they have. Nothing is permanent in politics,” Osotsi said.
However, the trio has the option of cobbling new political alliances, teaming up with either Ruto or Raila or going it all alone to the ballot.
Teaming up with either Raila or Ruto would force them to play second fiddle, something their lieutenants have maintained would amount to political suicide.
Going it alone did not work for both Mudavadi and Kalonzo in 2013 and 2007.
Yesterday, Kibwezi East MP Jessica Mbalu said Kalonzo cannot be wished away in the 2022 politics.
“No one should dare underrate Kalonzo’s influence in Ukambani politics. He has carried many people with him in his political journey and hence has a lot of influence in the region," she told the Star.
Ford Kenya's national organising secretary Chris Mandu Mandu maintained the party was still relevant, with the capacity of forming the next government.
Ford Kenya secretary general Eseli Simiyu revealed that the party would be considering a new alliance ahead of 2022 polls.
“We are looking at possibly other alliances,” the Tongaren MP told the Star when asked how the party was strategising for the next General Election.
He said once the party concludes conducting the ongoing grassroots elections it would convene a special national delegates conference to chart the way forward.
“In the process, we are going to see whether we need to partner with anybody or go it alone. Those are decisions that will be made by the NDC. We are definitely in the middle of reorganizing ourselves because the coming elections will be hard fought and we need to prepare early,” Eseli said on phone.
ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna has on different occasions indicated that their plan to dump Nasa was just a matter of time.
ODM’s remarks have escalated into intra-coalition wars with both Ford Kenya and Wiper daring ODM to make good their threat and communicate their intention to walk out of Nassa in writing.
“My challenge to the ODM fraternity is to write to the Registrar of Political Parties that they want to get out of Nasa and we stop this hullabaloo of divorce. Nasa will remain even if they leave,” Wiper executive director Jared Siso told the Star.
“They are calling us leeches and parasites and bringing on skunks,” added Ford Kenya secretary general Eseli Simiyu.
It is this new development that must force the three Nasa co-principals to restrategise especially the Wiper boss who was banking on his colleagues’ support in line with the Nasa agreement.
Barrack Muluka, the ANC secretary general, yesterday said the party's priority at the moment was not building alliances but to focus on national issues that affect mwananchi.
“We are focusing on building the party and making sure that our grassroots branches are active. Our interest is not about alliances being build on selfish grounds,” Muluka said, adding that Nasa was still intact.
Wiper just like Ford Kenya is also keen on attracting new partners in the event the Nasa coalition does not live until the next election.
“One thing we know for a fact, we are going to a referendum. It only follows that we will have emerging political realignments. In that case, we are ready and watching and engaging to ensure we are in the right coalitions not led the ODM way,” said Siso.