CENSUS

How Census will determine 2022 voting patterns

We are still a nation that we build alliances based on tribes and therefore, presidential candidates for the 2022 election will study carefully the results which will inform their winning formulas.

In Summary

-The big tribes have an head-start and the tyranny of numbers will still be a factor in the 2022 election .

-In the months to come as we approach the 2022 election, presidential candidates will tailor-make their strategies with the results in their minds.

Treasury CS Ukur Yatani receives the 2019 Census results from President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House, Nairobi, on Monday, November 4, 2019.
Treasury CS Ukur Yatani receives the 2019 Census results from President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House, Nairobi, on Monday, November 4, 2019.
Image: PSCU

First of all, let me start by saying the numbers and the statistics are reflective of what had been projected.

Unlike in 2009 when some inconsistencies arising from the rate of population increase being higher than what birth and death rates would support, and age and sex profiles deviating from normal were witnessed, this time around, the results appear consistent.

As Kenyans we now have an opportunity to study the report which will inform the decisions the government will make going forward.

Secondly, the results will most certainly inform the 2022 and the subsequent elections.

Remember we are still a nation that builds alliances based on tribes and therefore, presidential candidates for the 2022 election will study, carefully, the results which will inform their winning formulas.

The big tribes have a head-start and the tyranny of numbers will still be a factor in the 2022 election.

I do not expect a major departure from the voting patterns we witnessed in 2013 and 2017 -Kenyans have traditions and cultures.

When you look at the census report you will notice that the big five tribes- that is the Kikuyu, the Kalenjins, Luhya and the Kamba are still way ahead in terms of their numbers and therefore the future coalitions, just like it happened in the 2013 and the 2017 general election will still be weaved around the five.

In the months to come as we approach the 2022 election, presidential candidates will tailor-make their strategies with the census in their minds.

In the other tribes too, there is an upward growth which clearly shows that they will be a major factor of consideration Those who will be running for President will study the report to inform their manifestoes and even project on the number of the youth who will register by 2022.

 
 

Women and youth are on the rise and they will play a significant role thus the numbers released today (yesterday) will go along way in guiding political strategy.

The results have been released at a time the country is waiting for the Building Bridges Initiate task force report to be released and definitely will inform the national debate.

The Kirinyaga senator spoke to the Star

WATCH: The latest videos from the Star