A ferocious but unspoken battle to control Nyanza politics has erupted that promises to define the 2022 race for the country’s top job.
The conflict pits Nasa chief Raila Odinga against Siaya Senator James Orengo, his ally and close legal adviser.
The two have been rivals in the past but came back together politically in the last decade.
However, a schism seems to be growing between the erstwhile political rivals and bosom friends.
Recently Orengo was not privy to moves that led to the March 9 truce between Raila and President Uhuru Kenyatta that ended last year's protracted and bitter political battle for the presidency.
Outside Nyanza, Mombasa governor Hassan Joho and his Kakamega counterpart Wycliffe Oparanya are scheming to take over the ODM political machine, despite signals that Raila has no intention of hanging up his boots soon.
Raila has not declared his future political intentions and his star has been re-energised by the Building Bridges Initiative with the president.
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But whereas on the face of it the battle for supremacy seems to be between Orengo and ODM party national chairman John Mbadi, insiders believe Orengo is determined to pull all stops to succeed Raila as the preeminent leader in Nyanza in the run-up to the 2022 General Election.
Orengo is said to be opposed to Raila’s succession plan which revolves around a crop of young loyalist leaders — Mbadi and Junet Mohammed —who have his ears and favour.
Even though he is not vocal about it, Orengo is said to enjoy the sympathy and support of mostly first-time MPs, particularly those with a legal background, who have opposed Raila's position on a number of issues. They call themselves intellectuals.
At the centre of the emerging rift is Raila’s unilateral decision to work with Uhuru without their involvement and, according to some, sufficient safeguards.
The clearest and most recent sign of the disquiet between Orengo and Raila was the controversial vote on Uhuru’s memorandum and the Finance Bill that imposed an eight per cent VAT on fuel among other tax measures.
While Raila rallied the MPs to support Uhuru’s tax measures, Orengo rubbished the proposals and urged the National Assembly to reject the President's memorandum that nevertheless sailed through after a tumultuous session on September 21.
Presumed to be on Orengo’s side are MPs Otiende Amolo (Rarieda), Paul Abuor (Rongo), Peter Kaluma (Homa Bay), TJ Kajwang (Ruaraka), Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), Martin Owino (Ndhiwa), Mark Nyamita (Uriri) and Woman Representative Pamela Odhiambo (Migori).
Also siding with Orengo is ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna.
The Orengo group is facing off with a group that takes marching orders directly from Raila and Joho, the ODM deputy party leader.
They include ODM chairman John Mbadi (Suba South), Junet Mohamed (Suna East), Woman Representative Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay), Peter Masara (Suna West), Tom Odege (Nyatike), Jared Okello (Nyando), Woman Rep Rosa Buyu (Kisumu), Samuel Atandi (Alego Usonga) and nominated senator Rose Nyamunga.
Asked yesterday about the existence of camps and factions, Junet said, “I do not know.”
The Orengo group opposed the Finance Bill in the House, despite an earlier party meeting that agreed ODM lawmakers would support it.
Soon after the acrimonious vote in Parliament, MPs Otiende, Abuor and Kaluma, among others, took to social media, to state that they didn’t toe the party line but voted with their consciences.
“President Uhuru’s memo on [lowering to eight per dent] the 16 per cent VAT is subterfuge and diversion. We need to reject the 16 per cent VAT and discuss other ameliorating mechanisms later.
Let each MP stand up and be counted!” Otiende said. In another signal that fraying party unity was getting out of hand, Raila’s spokesman, Dennis Onyango, urged Otiende to resign from ODM.
“I think you should go a step further and resign from the party and seek a fresh mandate since your views are no longer consistent with those of the party.
That would make you truly honourable,” Onyango told the Rarieda lawmaker.
He went on, “If you choose to live by principles, you go the whole hog. It is not conning. Taxation and budget are serious policy matters. If you don’t agree with your party on those two fundamental issues, you should not continue being in the party.”
But Otiende took on the challenge and asked Onyango to write to him formally requesting his resignation, and then he would do so.
Soon after the passage of the Finance Bill, ODM secretary general Sifuna hit the ground, condemning it.
He told journalists later that supporting the bill was not an ODM position and instead referred the section of the media that needed clarification to the head of the Nasa secretariat, Norman Magaya. Raila, on the other hand, thanked those who stood with the party and supported the taxation bill.
He has since explained in various forums that support for the bill was dependent on certain conditions, including a vigorous war on corruption, repatriation of stolen public funds and property, and reducing government waste.
The two ODM camps have also figured in the just-concluded Migori senatorial campaigns. The by-election is today.
Last weekend, Orengo led his team to Migori to campaign for the ODM candidate, Ochilo Ayacko. Migori MPs kept off, except for Dr Odhiambo and Abuor.
The problem of the two factions was discussed extensively at ODM’s Central Management Committee meeting two weeks ago.
At that time Sifuna was at pains to explain that he was only opposed to the process through which the bill passed in the House — arranging lack of quorum — and not the bill itself.
Raila is expected to convene an informal gathering of Luo MPs to iron out the differences, but he is said to be fully aware of what is at play and who is behind it.
The bill is said to have merely been a trigger for Orengo — who remains bitter that Raila sealed the deal with President Kenyatta without involving him and appears to be relying on junior MPs for advice.
A contest between the two preeminent Luo leaders, Raila and Orengo, has happened before.
The first major rift was in 1994, soon after the death of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, when a contest erupted over the leadership of Ford Kenya.
Orengo became the deputy of Ford Kenya chairman Wamalwa Kijana and was acknowledged by many as the undisputed leader of the Luo community.
Raila held a junior position of deputy director of elections. Nyatieng’, as Orengo is commonly known, made no secret of his intention to take over the leadership of Ford Kenya and that of the Luo community.
In that contest, Orengo sided with Wamalwa who was then the official leader of the Opposition.
Raila was later to leave Ford Kenya in 1996 and form the National Development Party (NDP), which swept most seats in Luo-Nyanza in the 1997 elections.
Orengo survived the wave and was reelected on the Ford Kenya ticket, alongside former Gem MP Joe Donde. Kisumu governor Anyang’ Nyong’o was consigned to the cold for five years.
The other time was in 2002 when Raila threw his weight behind former President Mwai Kibaki.
Orengo broke ranks with Raila and unsuccessfully ran for President on the Social Democratic Party (SDP) ticket, performing dismally. He even lost his Ugenya seat to the late archbishop Stephen Ondiek.
But in a turn of events, the 2005 referendum campaigns provided an opportunity for Orengo to reunite with Raila in the No (Orange) camp.
After they won the referendum, the No proponents formed ODM-Kenya (which later changed to Wiper) before they coined ODM upon the fallout in ODM-K in the run-up to the 2007 election.
Since then, Orengo has been one of Raila’s trusted lieutenants.
He would become one of the negotiators in the mediation headed by former UN secretary general Kofi Anan after the disputed presidential spilt into post-poll violence. Raila appointed him the Lands minister in the Grand Coalition government.
Last year, Orengo led the team of lawyers that secured the unprecedented nullification of the August 8 Presidential election.
He is said to have been one of those who advised Raila to boycott the repeat October 26 election after IEBC refused to yield to NASA conditions.
Since the handshake, Orengo has been quietly opposed to the Raila-Uhuru cooperation pact.
Since he dethroned Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula as Senate Minority leader, sources say Orengo has been keen on assuming the position of de facto Nasa Parliamentary leader, the same hat that Wetang’ula wore as co-principal.
That has however not materialised as he has to contend with John Mbadi's position as Minority leader of the National Assembly, which commands more numbers and clout.
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