Livestock farmers risk losing between Sh34 billion to Sh68 billion due to drought and other effects of climate change, a study has revealed.
The study released by the Kenya Market Trust showed
that Kenya risks losing about 1.7 million cattle which is about 52 percent of the total cattle population in arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) in the next ten years.
Mohammed Said, a research consultant with Kenya Market Trust said the huge loss
is equivalent to 20 percent of the money used to build the Standard Gauge Railway, which cost about Sh340 billion.
He noted
that due to rainfall variability and temperatures, there has been an increase in sheep and goat population by about 76 percent, 13 in camels, six in
donkeys
while the population of cattle has reduced by 25 percent.
The study on
livestock trends in the arid and semi arid areas,
further showed that
all the 21 counties in the ASALs have reported an increase in temperature and in some of the counties, the increase has gone beyond the 1.5 degrees which is major concern and issue of discussion globally. These counties are Turkana, West Pokot, Elyego Marakwet, Baringo, Laikipia and Narok.
Turkana County has been hit hard in cattle loss at 60 percent, 59 in Machakos, 57 Garissa, Kitui at 43, Kajiado at 42, Marsabit 30, West Pokot 23 and Samburu at 23 percent loss.
Some of the counties that showed slight increase in cattle were Kilifi, Laikipia, Baringo, Taita Taveta,
and Lamu. There was an increase in sheep and goats in all the 19 out of the 21 ASAL counties, with only Kwale and Elyeyo Marakwet showing negative trend.
Mohammed stated that this has a huge implication in the livestock market. “With declining cattle, it means the country might have to import. At the moment we have cattle coming from Tanzania and Somalia to subsidize what we are losing in the country,” he added.
The study projected a further increase in temperatures in the next 10 to 20 years and according to Mohammed will see some counties lose between 50 to 100 percent of the vegetation and productivity of cattle in the affected counties will be low.
Garissa, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera , Baringo and Samburu Counties will be hit hard by the changes in temperatures.
“The number of livestock that will be impacted will be higher in Garissa at 235,000, Wajir 192,000, Tana River 187,000, Turkana 152,000, Kitui 123,000, Isiolo 121,000, Kilifi 102,000, Kwale 98,000, Marsabit 97,000, Kajoado 74,000 and Baringo 72,000. But the impact will be least in Narok and Laikipia counties,” the study showed.
"The livestock industry is quite important and for us to achieve the Big Four agenda, we have to really put more emphasis and focus on the sector and also if we are to realize the 10 percent increase in the GDP. It has been projected that climate change might reduce the country’s GDP to between two to five percent, hence the need for climate interventions in our plans,” he said.