ODM's Willy Mtengo will garner a 61 per cent win in the March 7 Malindi by-election, a poll has found, and placed his closest rival at 29 per cent.
The survey found Malindi is
predominantly affiliated to ODM (67 per cent) but noted Mtengo and Jubilee challenger Philip Charo are 98 per cent and 100 per cent known respectively.
The survey by Trends and Insights For Africa company gave The National Alliance a one per cent following.
The winner of the poll has his work cut out as nearly half of the residents feel Malindi is headed in the wrong direction. Forty per cent said poverty and unemployment need to be addressed.
A 2014 World Bank report placed the poverty index of the greater Kilifi county, of which Malindi is part, at 71.4 per cent, while a county audit found 75 per cent youth (87,427) are unemployed.
Thirty-three per cent of those polled felt the constituency is headed in the right direction while 24 per cent were neutral.
The survey conducted between February 26 and 28 sampled 520 respondents aged above 18 years.
TIFA placed the margin of error as + (-) 4 per cent.
The results come days after another by East Africa Dataline Consult gave Mtengo a 54 per cent victory against Charo's 33 per cent, in what is largely seen as a two-horse race.
Other candidates include Attas Sharrif (LPK), Kadu Asili's Reuben Katana, Peter Pondo, David Mangi (Shirikisho), FPK's Nelson Gunga, Faud Kombe from Kanu, Ahmed Maamun (NAM), and Furhan Mohamed of MDP.
Cord leader Raila Odinga is in Malindi to campaign for Mtengo.
Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi and Mombasa's Hassan Joho have been traversing the constituency on a vote hunting mission.
Joho, who is ODM party leader, said at Msabaha grounds on Monday that the party's support base in Malindi guarantees a landslide victory.
"Numbers do not lie.
We thank the people of Msabaha for their unwavering support and love for ODM and Willy Mtengo," he said.
The Jubilee brigade in Malindi believe they have done enough to swing the tide to their side in the rural areas and have made significant inroads into Cord-dominated areas.
In a last minute push for votes, Jubilee has intensified door-to-door campaigns, concentrating on Shella ward and Malindi Town where Lunga Lunga MP Khatib Mwashetani said they will channel all their efforts.
President Uhuru Kenyatta is also expected in Malindi over the weekend to rally support for Charo.
Nominated Senator Emma Mbura told the Star Mtengo was "unsellable" so Cord is "selling the party instead".
"They took Sanga Barawa’s victory from him and that is why they will not vote for Mtengo. Barawa is on our side now. That means popular candidates are both in Jubilee," Mbura said on Monday.
Jubilee has also challenged the ODM candidate's moral authority to lead, citing his links with Rain Drops company.
The company was contracted to collect revenue on behalf of the Kilifi county government and was the subject of protests that led to the death of a woman last year.
The to vie for Malindi MP amid reports he forged his academic papers to secure employment.
The Star also talked to a number of residents on Monday, who said they were not sure whom to vote for.
"Initially, many were for Mtengo but since the Jubilee leaders came here, people are now confused," said Jama Omar, a Jilore resident.