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January 20, 2019

2017 poll a two-horse race between Raila and Uhuru -Ipsos

2017 poll a two-horse race -ipsos
2017 poll a two-horse race -ipsos

WITH less than two years to the next election, the Presidential contest is shaping up as a clear two-horse race between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Cord leader Raila Odinga.

According to a new poll by Ipsos, if the elections were held today, Uhuru would get 40 per cent of the Presidential votes and Raila 29 per cent.

Deputy President William Ruto would come a distant third at six per cent, while Cord co-principal Kalonzo Musyoka would get four per cent. The other politicians who showed interest in 2013 are all at two per cent and below.

Ruto was Uhuru's running mate in 2013, while Kalonzo was Raila's number two, in the poll whose disputed result was settled by the Supreme Court.

Only two other potential candidates - Cord's third principal Moses Wetang’ula and the Eagle Coalition's 2013 candidate Peter Kenneth – score above two per cent.

The poll, which was commissioned by the Star and conducted between November 7 and 19, shows that 13 per cent of Kenyans are still undecided on who they would elect President.

A total of 2,058 people were interviewed face-to-face for the poll, which has a +/-2.2 per cent sampling error at a 95 per cent confidence level.

The poll shows that Uhuru's popularity has fallen from 48 per cent in August, the previous poll by Ipsos, to 40 per cent.

At the same time, Raila's popularity has risen from 23 per cent in August to 29 per cent in the current poll.

“The next Ipsos survey shall reveal whether this trend will continue, or whether the actions taken by Uhuru in the period since the survey was completed, together with whatever future measures he implements regarding issues Kenyans consider important, will reverse this upward trend for the opposition,” Ipsos explains.

Raila and the opposition brigade have been vocal on issues relating to governance and corruption, to the extent of telling Uhuru to resign.

The Jubilee administration has been faced with multiple accusations of corruption and waste of public funds.

Last week, Uhuru shuffled his Cabinet, replacing five Cabinet Secretaries who had been suspended over corruption allegations.

This was preceded by the resignation of Devolution CS Anne Waiguru, whom the opposition was asking Uhuru to fire over loss of money at the National Youth Service.

The poll also shows that while in the August survey only 63 per cent of Cord supporters indicated support for Raila, this has now increased to 71 per cent.

In contrast, 74 per cent of Jubilee supporters are behind Uhuru as compared to the 76 per cent who expressed the same backing in August.

“In other words, whereas the ‘support-gap’ of their coalition supporters between them was a full 13 per cent in August, it is now only 3 per cent, mainly due to an increase in support for Raila among Cord supporters (of 8 per cent),” Ipsos explained.


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