AJUOK: How ‘Little General Election’ will set stage for 2027 polls

One manifestation of how reckless this country can be is that it went for two years without a properly constituted election agency, denying representation to a number of constituencies, wards and a Senate seat.

Vacancies there arose following the 2022 general elections. Worse still, it left the country running on a national security and stability gap had, God forbid, such vacancies arisen in much more important national offices. But God apparently loves Kenya a lot more than its leaders do.

This is why the reconstitution of IEBC in July caused an instant rush towards the November 27 ‘little general election,’ when the electoral agency will conduct 24 by-elections for one Senate seat (Baringo), six constituency vacancies and 17 ward representatives, spread out across the country.

It will be the biggest election festival outside the regular electoral cycle. The polls will not only present IEBC with a massive headache about demonstrating some credibility to win back public’s confidence ahead of 2027, but also throw the country into a midterm campaign mode.

Wherever you go in this country these days, everyone seems to be chanting some sort of term limits for or against elected leadership, especially for President William Ruto.

Chants of ‘Wantam’ and ‘Tutam’, corruptions of “one term” and “two terms”, have become routine slogans wherever two or more Kenyans are gathered.

Essentially, a large portion of the population can’t wait for the next general election, so that it can use the ballot to punish and reward politicians in almost equal measure. Luckily, for the 24 electoral zones in the upcoming by-elections, and indeed for the rest of the Kenyan watchers, November 27 will present a rehearsal on the changing political alliances and dynamics, with 2027 campaigns all but on.

As of today, it is easy to cluster the political field into two broad formations, namely the ‘Wantam’ and ‘Tutam’ brigades, revolving around those who want to end the Kenya Kwanza experiment after just one term and those want Ruto to be re-elected. The truth, however, goes beyond the superficial.

Within the two broad formations, sub-alliances and divisions have emerged, giving rise to even smaller political groupings and interests. For instance, the loose coalition of opposition parties led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua would have looked like a solid team heading into these by-elections.

But instead, Gachagua’s own DCP has already identified candidates in both Mbeere North and Malava constituencies, considered the spheres of their allies in DP and DAP-K, respectively. Especially interesting is the Malava seat left vacant following the death of Malulu Injendi.

Gachagua’s own deputy party leader, former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, has asked DAP-K, the party of former CS Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, to drop their ambitions and support DCP. It is not difficult to understand the position of Gachagua and his party.

A creature of raw tribal politics, the former DP obviously sees his Mount Kenya political base as being too big to play second fiddle within his formation.

Besides, as an impeached politician barred from running in 2027 (though he is challenging this ban in court), he may want to popularise his party so effectively countrywide that by the next general election, he can win enough parliamentary seats to negotiate with and arm-twist whoever emerges president.

Gachagua is also a frontline believer in his own hype, always seeing himself as the most important and most influential individual in the room, an ego-fuelled political animal not used to being subservient. I actually pity those who intend to work with him. It is not as if all the incoming problems belong only to the opposition coalition.

The broad-based government led by Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga may have even bigger issues. Take note of Ugunja constituency in Siaya county, left vacant when MP Opiyo Wandayi was appointed to the Cabinet, and Kasipul constituency in Homa Bay county, whose MP Ong’ondo Were was assassinated in Nairobi.

ODM may have an easy ride, purely because the two are situated bang in Raila’s Luo heartland. Outside Luo Nyanza this time, a reality check awaits the Orange party.

To begin with, no serious candidate in Malava has shown interest in the ODM ticket, with political parties scheduled to present their candidates’ names to IEBC on September 17. This is noteworthy because Kakamega is an authentic ODM stronghold where the party holds 10 of the 12 parliamentary seats, alongside two of the three elective county seats.

The general consensus is that outside Luoland, ODM is suffering a decline arising from its continued association with the Ruto regime, and in the eyes of the people, it bears part of the government’s baggage.

The foregoing makes by-election outcomes in Magarini in Kilifi and Banissa in Mandera a toss-up, which could go any which way.

The Magarini seat fell vacant after 2022 winner Harrison Kombe of ODM lost it following a petition by runner-up Karisa Kenga of the ruling UDA. Kilifi county has fashioned itself over the past four electoral cycles as a trusted ODM zone, but it remains to be seen if the party’s challenges will manifest there as well.

The two protagonists were separated by just 21 votes in the nullified 2022 contest, making it a virtual tie. But if both ODM and UDA are facing crises of confidence within the larger population, Magarini may be where this will become clearer. If the people decide to reject both parties, it will open the door for a third party to steal the show.

Word from the ground is that Senate Speaker Amason Kingi’s PAA party will be fielding a candidate. That leaves the Banissa outcome possibly the most unpredictable of all the by-elections.

The seat fell vacant following the death of MP Kulow Hassan in March 2023, making it the constituency with the longest lack of parliamentary representation. Hassan was from the UDM party, but changes within the political sphere could throw the contest wide open.

What remains largely unsaid is that beyond the little general election seen as a test of emerging political formations, it will also focus on the ability of the newly reconstituted IEBC to conduct a credible election. Polls will test whether it can assure a restless nation that progress has been made in a sector that often divides the country more than any other.

I don’t find the new chairman, Erastus Ethekon, more inspiring than the disgraced former chairman, Wafula Chebukati (deceased), but I hope he proves me wrong.

I believe the chairman and his commissioners, as well as the entire IEBC secretariat, have been around long enough to understand that rising frustration with the electoral systems and management portend long-term instability for the nation.

Many more citizens today do not trust the conduct of elections. The whole team is lucky to have so many by-elections in which to test the efficacy and efficiency of their tools, before the general elections in less than two years.

I am certain the outcomes and conduct of the November 2027 little general election will define the sentiments leading to the big one, and no one wants to put a foot wrong,