Why Ol Kalou by-election will not be a walk in park for Ruto

The upcoming Ol Kalou by-election is shaping up to be far more than a routine contest to replace a deceased MP.

Instead, the race is rapidly evolving into a politically charged showdown between President William Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

For Ruto, the contest presents one of the toughest political tests he has faced in the region since his dramatic fallout with Gachagua, once his closest political ally and chief mobiliser in Mt Kenya.

The by-election was triggered by the death of Ol Kalou MP David Kiaraho on March 29, while undergoing treatment at Nairobi Hospital.

Following his death, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula declared the seat vacant through a Gazette Notice issued on April 20, paving the way for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to schedule a by-election on July 16.

Beneath the procedural process lies a fierce political duel. At the centre of the battle is the question of whether Gachagua commands the loyalty of Mt Kenya voters after his impeachment and political fallout with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The former Deputy President has spent months crisscrossing the region, rallying grassroots supporters and portraying himself as the defender of Mt Kenya’s political and economic interests against what he calls betrayal by the current administration.

His newly emerging political outfit, the Democracy for Citizens Party, is increasingly becoming the rallying point for disgruntled leaders and voters in the region.

The by-election will now serve as the first major constituency-level test of that growing movement in Mt Kenya West, widely regarded as Gachagua’s political backyard.

Gachagua’s camp believes victory in Ol Kalou would send a powerful signal that he still commands immense influence in the region and could seriously weaken Ruto’s political grip ahead of 2027.

The DCP has fielded businessman Sammy Ngotho as its candidate after a nomination exercise that attracted unusually high voter participation.

Gachagua said Ngotho won the DCP ticket with 12,957 votes, defeating Paul Waiganjo, who garnered 4,978 votes.

More than 20,000 people reportedly participated in the DCP nominations, a figure political analyst Daniel Orogo says is remarkable, considering by-elections and party primaries typically record low voter turnout.

“The numbers have become a major talking point in political circles,” he says.

By comparison, the ruling United Democratic Alliance attracted 8,258 voters during its own nomination exercise despite fielding 10 candidates.

Samuel Nyaga, a former personal assistant to the late MP Kiaraho, clinched the UDA ticket after garnering 3,221 votes, narrowly defeating George Wambugu Kanuri, who got 3,077 votes.

Orogo argues that the contrast between the two nomination exercises could indicate shifting political moods in Mt Kenya.

“The by-election is becoming symbolic,” he said. “It is no longer just about replacing an MP. It is about testing who currently controls the political heartbeat of Mt Kenya.”

The stakes are particularly high because Ol Kalou sits in a region that overwhelmingly backed Ruto in the 2022 elections.

The late Kiaraho won the seat with 24,058 votes under the UDA ticket, benefiting from the strong Kenya Kwanza wave that swept through Mt Kenya at the time.

Now, however, the political landscape appears deeply fractured. Several influential leaders who once backed Ruto are either distancing themselves from UDA or openly leaning towards Gachagua’s camp.

Anne Waiguru recently apologised to Mt Kenya residents over Gachagua’s impeachment, saying she understood the anger and disappointment in the region.

“I understand your pain. I am truly sorry,” Waiguru said, while distancing governors from the impeachment process.

Irungu Kang'ata has also drifted away from the ruling party, while former Kirinyaga Woman Representative Wangui Ngirici has publicly declared that DCP and allied opposition formations represent what many Kenyans want.

Even Kimani Wamatangi has signalled political flexibility ahead of 2027, saying he would align himself with whichever political vehicle the people of Kiambu choose.

The defections and shifting loyalties have emboldened Gachagua’s allies, who now see Ol Kalou as the ideal battlefield to prove the region is slipping away from Ruto.

DCP planning secretary Peter Mbae said victory in Ol Kalou would politically settle Mt Kenya.

“When we win the Ol Kalou by-election, 70 per cent of Mt Kenya politics will be settled, and we will just be waiting for the 2027 elections,” he said.

The opposition camp has also been encouraged by recent polling trends.

A new survey released by Trends and Insights For Africa on Thursday showed growing momentum for DCP nationally.

According to the poll, DCP support rose from nine per cent in September 2025 to 16 per cent in May 2026, placing it level with UDA nationally and only slightly behind ODM.

The findings have reinforced perceptions that voter dissatisfaction with traditional political formations is growing.

 Still, Ruto is far from politically weakened.

The President retains significant support from influential leaders in Mt Kenya, including Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who replaced Gachagua and has aggressively defended the administration in the region.

Fresh from a political victory in Mbeere North, where candidates associated with Gachagua suffered defeat, Kindiki has adopted an openly combative tone towards his predecessor.

“He came chest-thumping in Mbeere North, I floored him. Just wait, there is a by-election coming in Ol Kalou, we will meet there,” Kindiki said recently. “I will floor him badly. That is where he will learn to respect me.”

The Mbeere North outcome strengthened the confidence of Ruto’s allies, who now believe the President still commands sufficient state-backed political machinery and grassroots influence to withstand Gachagua’s rebellion.

Ruto’s camp is also banking on development politics and incumbency advantages.

Former CS Moses Kuria said UDA candidate Muchina understands the needs of the constituency after working closely with the late MP.

“He is aware and alive to all the issues in Ol Kalou,” he said, expressing confidence in victory.

Kuria added that the ruling party would focus on issue-based campaigns centred on government projects and development promises.

“We will go to the ground and demonstrate government projects, and our candidate is from the ruling party,” he said.

UDA secretary general Hassam Omar Hassan also projected confidence, saying the party is ready to deploy its full political machinery.

“We have completed our internal democratic process, and our focus shifts to the grassroots as we prepare to deploy our political architecture and a well-coordinated campaign to win the vote and confidence of the Ol Kalou electorate,” Hassan said.

With 72,997 registered voters in Ol Kalou, turnout will likely become the defining factor in determining the outcome.

And because by-elections traditionally attract fewer voters, the unusually high participation witnessed during DCP nominations has alarmed sections of the ruling party.

For Gachagua, victory would validate his claim that the region feels betrayed and remains firmly behind him despite his removal from office.

For Ruto, however, defeat would raise questions about whether his once-solid support base in Mt Kenya is beginning to fracture ahead of the 2027 presidential race.