Which way ODM? Internal rifts and UDA clashes test party’s 2027 path

In a striking escalation, the party has suspended coalition talks with President William Ruto’s UDA even before they formally began, signalling the depth of mistrust undermining what was billed as a unity arrangement.

Underscoring the increasingly hardline position, ODM internal sources say they “can’t engage people who are showing open disrespect to us”.

“We agreed to concentrate on strengthening our party and will review the coalition talks later,” a source who attended a high-level meeting told the Star.

ODM had positioned itself as a stabilising partner in the broad-based framework, but is increasingly uneasy with the terms of its relationship with UDA.

Among the most contentious issues is a push by sections of ODM to ring-fence its traditional strongholds, particularly in the Nyanza region, in an attempt to block UDA inroads.

The party has also flirted with the idea of renegotiating the power-sharing arrangement to secure the Deputy President slot, threatening the position currently held by Kithure Kindiki. The push has drawn backlash from UDA ranks.

National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed has warned ODM could walk away from the deal altogether.

His remarks were reinforced by ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga, who signalled the party is prepared to prioritise its political survival over the coalition arrangement.

“We will defend and protect our party. That comes first before anything else, so that our parliamentary strength is not reduced even by an inch. That is how we shall proceed,” Wanga said.

But UDA leaders have pushed back, dismissing ODM’s demands and asserting their right to compete across the country.

A group of UDA figures has outright rejected the notion of zoning, insisting no region is off-limits, while also shutting down any discussion around the Deputy President position.

“You, ODM, leave the DP seat alone; it belongs to Kindiki until 2032, when he will vie for president,” a senior UDA figure said.

Similarly, UDA secretary general Hassan Omar dismissed the zoning push, insisting that party will field candidates nationwide.

“ODM says the Coast is their stronghold. We are telling them the Coast belongs to the people of the Coast. Let us compete fairly,” he said during a recent address in Mombasa.

Even as ODM confronts its partner externally, it is grappling with deepening internal fissures that threaten to complicate its strategic direction.

Factions loosely identified as Linda Ground, seen as defenders of the broad-based arrangement, and Linda Mwananchi, a reformist wing, have emerged.

The zoning debate has further exposed these divisions, with leaders sharply split on whether ring-fencing regions is a necessary defensive strategy or a distraction from more pressing organisational priorities.

Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo has urged restraint, warning against public spats that could weaken the party’s bargaining position.

“My urge is that we diminish this contestation on zoning or not, and focus instead on the process of settling the negotiating team, their terms of reference, and the framework of engagement. If we agree, we move forward; if not, we move on,” he said.

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita said the strength of any party ultimately rests on the credibility of its internal democratic processes.

“The dominance of either UDA or ODM in any region will depend on how credibly they conduct their primaries. Anything short of a transparent process will be rejected by the people,” he said.

These competing positions have left ODM navigating multiple centres of power, with leaders pulling in different directions at a time when unity is critical.

Political analysts warn that ODM’s simultaneous battles—both internal and external—risk blurring its political identity at a critical juncture.

University don Prof Gitile Naituli argues the party’s current posture reflects a deeper struggle over its ideological and strategic direction.

“The disagreements over the Deputy President position, tensions around zoning, and friction within the coalition are all symptoms of a deeper identity contest,” he said.

“When a party appears to be in conflict on multiple fronts, three things tend to happen. First, it dilutes its core message. The public stops seeing a clear ideological or policy position and instead sees noise.

“Second, it weakens internal discipline, as multiple centres of power emerge. Third, it risks fatigue among supporters, who begin to question what the party truly stands for.”

ODM now finds itself juggling competing interests. It has to defend its traditional strongholds, assert influence within government and manage internal ideological battles.