Long an opposition bastion, Coast is free for the taking

National leaders have also trained their guns on the region long known as a bastion for opposition politics.

However, the recent meetings between UDA and ODM bigwigs from the region have signalled a new trajectory, coming after months of vicious push and pull over zoning and the deputy president position that threatened to tear apart the broad-based arrangement.

On April 21, the first of these extraordinary meetings between UDA secretary general Hassan Omar, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and Sports CS Salim Mvurya, all representing UDA, and ODM deputy leader Abdulswamad Nassir, Mining CS Hassan Joho and Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung’aro, all representing ODM, took place at a private residence in one of Nairobi’s leafy suburbs.

It was then followed by at least two other meetings in Mombasa as the leaders focused on the expected visit of President William Ruto for yet another tour of the Coast, which was at first set for April 29.

However, on that date, Ruto met Governor Nassir in State House.

Nassir told the Star the meetings are consultative, with the leaders all looking to see how the Coast will benefit from the broad-based arrangement.

“These are just consultative meetings on the way forward, and how we are going to be working together as broad-based to make sure that even the Coast region gets development,” Nassir said.

He said the region needs to be strengthened and they were consulting on what needs to be done for it to come to fruition.

“That [the Coast region] is our priority,” Nassir said. “We are like-minded people. We should put politics aside and work for the people,” he said.

Several meetings of Coast MPs have been held to identify key priority areas that need to be addressed before 2027.

Jomvu MP Badi Twalib, one of ODM's pioneers, having been one of the first leaders elected on the ODM ticket in 2007 as Jomvu councillor, said their aim as Coast leaders is to fulfil the dreams of Raila Odinga.

He said this can only work when they work together as coastal leaders, hence the many recent meetings regardless of party affiliation.

“We are talking about unity of the region. United, we are stronger,” he said, adding that the Coast region has to fully benefit from the broad-based arrangement.

“Oburu and Ruto are trying to see how best we can strengthen the broad-based arrangement while we are also trying to see how the region can benefit,” he said.

The priority areas they have identified are land issues, revival of industries, education and employment.

“We are pushing for these to be significantly addressed before 2027,” said Twalib, a staunch supporter of Nassir.

This also comes after the united opposition toured the Coast between April 24 and April 26.

Hosted by Nyali MP Mohammed Ali, the united opposition, which has strengthened its team with the capture of Kadu Asili, made inroads, especially in Mombasa, where Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Patriotic Front enjoys relatively significant support, particularly in Mombasa West.

Political analysts say Ali could be leaning on this support to ride on to unseat Nassir.

Ali is a smart politician. He works in silence on the ground, only to surface when he knows he has already done damage to the foundation of his opponents.

“That is why Kalonzo and Rigathi Gachagua were fighting for him to use their vehicles, a silent battle that saw Kalonzo publicly announce that they will give him direct nomination via Wiper,” said Mwakuja Mrombo, a political analyst at the Coast.

He said Ali is a big asset for any team he is in because of his oratory skills and ability to lay profound groundwork.

“I have it on good intel that President Ruto is working hard to have Jicho Pevu on his side. This is a man who single handedly won the Nyali MP seat as an independent and retained it with an unpopular party, UDA at the time,” Mrombo said.

And his mobilisation skills were enhanced at the Tononoka ground rally on April 25, when he almost filled it.

“Filling the Tononka ground is not a walk in the park. Ask any politician. You have to put in a great effort to have it filled. That is why some people fear having their rallies there and when they have it, they ensure there are many tents to eat up the space,” Mrombo said.

A sworn rival of Joho, Nassir and Omar, Ali is the united opposition’s point man at the Coast.

And he has announced his intention to unseat Nassir from the Mombasa governor position.

“Mohammed Ali is a force not to joke with because he knows the right things to say whenever he meets the electorate,” Mrombo told the Star.

He however dismissed Kadu Asili’s impact on the united opposition, saying the party, although has been revived, has little impact on politics at the Coast, if any.

“I was surprised. They are fronting somebody who has no support base. He is from Kwale but Kwale does not recognise him,” Mrombo said of Kadu Asili party leader Mudzo Nzili.

Analysts say the Coast, just like other regions in the country, is tired of the same old faces.

Encouraged by their growing influence, the young population in the region is also changing the political landscape.

For a long time, Mrombo said, the Coast has had the same faces leading the region’s politics, and since the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga, there has been open opposition to some faces.

“In the Coast many of the leaders who were depending on Raila to win elections will lose their seats,” he said, adding that the Gen Z wave will be back in force at the 2027 general election.

He said the leaders know this, hence the efforts to team up.

“The six leaders who are now purporting to work together are good at boardroom politics. But when it comes to groundwork, most of them are very weak. Only Joho used to enjoy the young population’s support, but now he does not have it anymore,” Mrombo said.

He said the clamour for new political faces is real at the Coast, as with elsewhere in the country.

“That is why the Linda Ground faction of ODM is having a rough time taming the Linda Wananchi faction. You saw how the Linda Wananchi faction was received in Kisumu the other day,” Mrombo said.

Led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Vihiga Senator Godffrey Osotsi, Linda Mwananchi stormed Kisumu with mammoth crowds.

Huge crowds also came out when Linda Mwananchi was in Mombasa a few weeks ago.

“This is because most of the leaders in the Linda Mwananchi faction are youthful leaders,” Mrombo said.

Engineer Dzombo Mbaru, also a political analyst based at the Coast, said the broad-based arrangement was rattled with the death of ODM leader Raila Odinga and now President Ruto is almost having his way in the region.

He said Ruto asserted himself more at the Coast after the death of Raila, forcing parties like Kingi’s PAA to fold so he can have total control of the region.

“The death of Raila spoiled everything. ODM is not ODM anymore and now Ruto wants to assert UDA in the region,” Mbaru said.

Both the broad-based team and the united opposition team have been sensitising the young people in the region to register as voters to bolster their numbers.

Under the leadership of Omar, the UDA brigade has aimed to drive up the voter number to at least two million.

This way, Omar told his UDA brigade, they will have enough numbers to influence political outcomes.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s Enhanced Continuous Voter Registration lapsed on Tuesday, with over 1.8 million new voters listed countrywide.

This is short of the 2.5 million new voters targeted when the exercise began on March 30.

The Coast registered 165,529 new voters, with Kilifi county leading with 54,171, followed by Mombasa's 41,444, then Kwale's 24,394, Taita Taveta's 20,160, Tana River's 17,015 and Lamu's 8,345.

In the 2022 general election, Coast had 1,963,144 registered voters.

Mbaru opines that three counties at the Coast are already locked, and he does not see any change happening with regard to the governor positions.

He said Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa are locked and the current governors will retain their seats.

“President Ruto wants the Coast region’s votes and does not want to disturb the politics very much. That is why he insisted on the folding of parties like PAA,” he said, indicating the idea of zoning will be implemented even under the broad-based arrangement.

Currently, ODM controls three counties at the Coast, including Mombasa, Kilifi and Tana River.

ANC, which also folded but then went to court, controls Lamu county, while UDA controls Kwale county. Taita Taveta county is controlled by an independent who is currently leaning toward UDA.

According to Mbaru, the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM is resonating more with the original ideals of ODM and that is why the young turks leading it are becoming a force to reckon with.

He said the Wiper factor at the Coast cannot be ignored as the party has made significant inroads due to the presence of the Kamba community members in the region.

UDA’s Omar was the first senator of Mombasa elected on the Wiper ticket, so was the first Nyali MP, Awiti Bollo.

“It is because of the Wiper strength that ex-deputy president Rigathi Gachagua also agreed to have the united opposition front a governor candidate under the Wiper ticket in Mombasa,” Mbaru said.

Ali is most likely to be Wiper's and the United Opposition’s governor candidate for Mombasa.

Mrombo said the Mijikenda factor at the Coast continues to be a conundrum. Though they have the numbers, they have always been divided.

Although former cabinet minister Ali Mwakwere is trying to galvanise the community to have a bigger say and stronger bargaining power, this is a tall order for them, Mrombo said.

Mbaru agreed with Mrombo, adding that their major undoing has been the lack of resources.

“With other political heavyweights having the financial might to bulldoze their agendas, the Mijikenda powerhouses may have only oratory skills to their names,” he said.

This is the reason the revival of Coast-based national political parties has been a tall order for most.