NJAU: Ol Kalou by-election tests Ruto, Uhuru and Gachagua camps’ grip on Mt Kenya West

The Ol Kalou by-election scheduled for July 16, 2026, has shifted from a routine constituency contest into a symbolic political battleground, exposing the widening power struggle between allies of President William Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

The seat was left vacant following the death of MP David Kiaraho, who was elected on the Jubilee Party ticket.

Already, several political formations, including UDA, Jubilee, Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), the Party of Democratic Unity (PDU) and Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party (PLP), have indicated interest in fielding candidates, signalling a crowded and highly competitive race.

Political analysts argue that the Kenya Kwanza administration is locked in a struggle for control of Mt Kenya West, following its recent consolidation in Mt Kenya East after the Mbeere North by-election.

On the other hand, the United Opposition and particularly the DCP, aligned with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, is seeking to secure its first seat in the 13th Parliament while testing its influence in the wider Mt Kenya region.

Political analyst Albert Kasembeli told the Star that the by-election has evolved into more than a parliamentary contest, describing it as a broader test of loyalty, mobilisation strength and regional dominance.

“Any serious politician understands the Ol Kalou contest is bigger than a parliamentary seat; it is a barometer of power in Mt Kenya. A win for Ruto would strengthen his regional push, while a loss could weaken it, and the same applies to Rigathi Gachagua and former president Uhuru Kenyatta,” he said.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo recently echoed similar sentiment when he said the contest reflects deeper shifts in Mt Kenya politics, noting that emerging alignments remain fragile and untested.

“The emerging alignment between Uhuru Kenyatta and Rigathi Gachagua is still fragile and largely untested, making this contest a crucial indicator of whether their cooperation can translate into tangible political capital,” he said.

He added that Jubilee’s performance will be closely watched as a measure of its relevance after losing national power in 2022, with a strong showing likely to reinforce Uhuru Kenyatta’s residual influence in the region.

The political undertones of the contest became evident during the memorial service for Kiaraho, where competing narratives of loyalty surfaced.

Gachagua used the platform to assert continued influence in the region, accusing President William Ruto of betraying the people of Mt Kenya.

“Mr President, you impeached me, but you did not remove me from the hearts of these people. Mt Kenya people still love me, and even more after what happened,” he said.

Gachagua also warned against premature succession politics in Ol Kalou, arguing that it is culturally inappropriate to discuss leadership transitions before burial rites are completed.

He was responding to Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who had warned Gachagua and his team to prepare for a humiliating defeat, as happened in Mbeere North.

Sources familiar with developments have hinted that the former deputy president's party is banking on area Senator John Methu, Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia and Governor Kiarie Badilisha, among others, in the upcoming by-election.

On the other hand, UDA is banking on area Woman Representative Faith Gitau, Kwenya Thuku (Kinangop) and Michael Muchira (Oljororok), among others.

On the Jubilee side, Uhuru Kenyatta is said to be banking on Jubilee Party deputy leader Jeremiah Kioni, former governor Francis Kimemia and former Kipipiri MP Amos Kimunya, among others.

During a Citizen TV interview on April 12, Senator Methu expressed confidence that the party would win the seat.

Methu had earlier received backlash after he publicly told Ruto that he doesn’t fear him.

“If I were to be given a microphone another time, I would say the exact words. I feel very proud of myself that I actually was able to defeat fear and speak before the head of state, and tell him the things that really matter to my people,” he said during the Citizen TV interview.

He has, on various instances, maintained that Gachagua is the Mt Kenya leader, dismissing Deputy President Kithure Kindiki's influence.

Kindiki has repeatedly dismissed Gachagua’s influence in the region, accusing him (Gachagua) of misleading and inciting the public.

During Kiaraho’s memorial service, President Ruto adopted a restrained tone, focusing on development commitments rather than political confrontation.

He pledged to revive stalled infrastructure projects and improve healthcare delivery in the constituency, including upgrading a level 4 hospital.

“They have spoken on me, but I will not respond here. I will only come here to respond to development,” Ruto said, adding that political disputes would be addressed in appropriate forums.

Former Nyeri MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, in a recent social media post, wondered why DCP wouldn’t cede the slot to the Jubilee candidate.

Referring to Gachagua as ‘Jofri’, Wambugu said Gachagua is determined to kill Jubilee Party in Mt Kenya.

“Jofri wants Jubilee dead, buried and forgotten. He cannot allow it to win the Ol Kalou seat back. He would rather UDA take it. He knows that Jubilee is the only party that can challenge his outfit in Mt Kenya and beat him,” Ngunjiri posted.

“I told Jubilee leaders Jofri will betray us the first opportunity he gets. I also reminded them I know him more than they do. Now as we plan to field our candidate in Ol Kalou and ask for support from Jofri, let's note he has already said ‘wanaume ni kuonana.” 

Meanwhile, Jubilee deputy leader Jeremiah Kioni has reaffirmed the party’s intention to defend the seat, insisting it rightfully belongs to them under opposition cooperation arrangements.

“We have a mutual agreement in the united opposition. Definitely, we will field a candidate in the forthcoming by-election,” he said.

DCP has also confirmed participation. The party recently opened nominations, setting fees at Sh250,000 for general aspirants and Sh125,000 for youth and persons with disabilities.

“The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) National Elections Board hereby invites qualified and interested candidates to apply for the party ticket in the upcoming Ol Kalou constituency by-election scheduled for July 16, 2026,” the notice read.

Applicants were also required to submit completed forms, supporting documents and proof of payment.

A week ago, Kindiki held a meeting with aspiring candidates for the seat.

In a statement, Kindiki urged aspirants to consider consensus where possible to avoid divisions within the party, while assuring all contenders of a free, fair and verifiable nomination process.

The Party of Democratic Unity, led by Isaiah Gichu, also pledged to field a candidate and offer free nomination certificates.

Gichu said the by-election reflects a deeper struggle between emotional mobilisation politics and state-driven development legitimacy in the mountain region.

Gichu said he will traverse the region to campaign for the party's candidate.

“There will be no financial barrier for aspirants when acquiring a nomination certificate. We are committed to giving free certificates to ensure fair participation,” he said.

Gichu said most of the parties fielding candidates are effectively “testing which form of political capital, loyalty or performance, holds more weight in the current political cycle ahead of the 2027 general election.

Kobia Koome, a ward aspirant in Meru county, told the Star that the heightened political attention reflects deeper tensions within Kenya Kwanza, where internal cohesion is being tested by parallel mobilisation structures and emerging regional power blocs.

“In Mt Kenya West, where voter sentiment is highly responsive to regional leadership cues, the Ol Kalou by-election now offers a critical snapshot of loyalty realignment ahead of future national contests,” he said.

He said the parties are effectively using by-elections as “calibration tools” for measuring grassroots acceptance of leadership ahead of the 2027 election.

Political writer