As is always the case, the politics of the Middle East, especially the
Gulf countries, impact global economics. Nations are affected because of the
reliance on oil as the primary source of energy yet the Gulf region supplies
more than half of global oil consumption.
Therefore, when the United States
declared and commenced war against the state of Iran, it was anticipated that
oil prices would skyrocket. This is what happened, despite reassurances from
the US government and many consumer countries.
However, as the war escalated, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This
stopped the free flow of oil supplies to the rest of the world. Many countries
immediately witnessed a sharp rise in crude oil and its products. Kenya suffered
the same fate and proportionately adjusted pump prices.
The rise in the cost of
the vital commodity already had been preceded by an acute shortage. However,
the presidential intervention on Wednesday, April 15, reversed the shock and
eased the burden on the citizens, although not significantly.
Every cloud has a silver lining. There is always an opportunity lurking
in any crisis. The current oil crisis has presented a unique occasion for
Kenyans to discuss candidly the pitfalls of reliance on oil as its primary
source of energy.
Thankfully, the government has made critical policy decisions
in this regard. These decisions would catalyse the discussions and make the
debate more informed.
The government has undertaken projects to diversify the
sources of energy. It should be noted that mega energy is required for
industrial production and manufacturing.
Diesel and related oil products have been the largest source of this
energy. The country also has a large segment that comprises the small-scale
consumers that are fully reliant on combustive oil products. These include
mainly those in the transport industry, both as commercial or private.
Kenya’s transport mode for people is overly in public service vehicles.
Consequentially, any fluctuation in the cost of diesel and petrol has direct
impact on the cost of living. Many households still depend on paraffin for
cooking. Any slight increase in cost strain family incomes. Deliberate efforts
are being made to switch entirely to renewable energy. This includes introduction
of electric vehicles for transport.
Reliable electricity supply is crucial for effective national
development through industrialisation, but more importantly, the relative of
energy for manufacturing must be economically viable. It is for this reason
that under the Vision 2030, stakeholders are consciously debating the inclusion
of mega producers of electricity such as nuclear energy.
After Independence in
1963, Kenya's main source of electricity was hydropower, which served as the
backbone of the national grid for several decades. While hydropower was the
primary source, thermal power (diesel-based) was also used, particularly during
periods of low rainfall. Hydropower is primarily drawn from stations along the
Tana River, such as the Seven Forks Scheme.
Thermal oil was a supplementary
source, which became more prominent during the 1990s due to drought-related
failures in hydropower. While research began earlier, large-scale exploitation
of geothermal energy at Olkaria was developed later to reduce the risk of
reliance on hydropower.
These sources remained inadequate, leading to importation of energy.
Kenya has long relied on importing a portion of its electricity, particularly
from Uganda, to meet demand. Reliance on hydro is risky as the country is
vulnerable to drought, leading to a later push for diversification into
geothermal, wind and solar, which now dominate the energy mix.
In a bid to make power energy from electricity affordable and
sustainable, the government has heavily invested in alternative source of
generation from natural resources. The most notable are the hydroelectric and
geothermal power plants.
Energy, which includes electricity, is one enabler of
economic growth. Specifically, Chapter Two of Kenya’s Vision 2030 classifies
energy under the foundations for socio-economic transformation and as an
infrastructural enabler of the pillars of the Vision.
In the last 25 years since 2000, electricity generation has experienced
both significant expansion in quantity and variety of sources driven partly by
growing demand and climate change concerns.
However, reliability remains a
major concern. Until 2015, the two major sources of electricity were thermal
oil and hydro, accounting for 48.3 and 42.9 per cent, respectively, adding up
to 91.2 per cent of domestically generated electricity.
Geothermal was a distant third with a share of 8.8 per cent. While
renewable sources still accounted for the majority of electricity (51.7 per
cent), thermal oil was the single largest source of electricity at 48.3 per
cent. Thermal oil is a non-renewable source and contributes greatly to carbon
emissions into the environment.
Over time, the amounts of electricity from
thermal oil declined by 30 per cent, resulting in the contribution of
renewables rising from 51 to 85 per cent. This substitution of high-carbon
non-renewable sources with low-carbon renewable sources is a clear indication
of actual de-carbonation in electricity generation.
Increased investments in
renewable energy saw wind as a primary source move above thermal oil. Together
with solar, their combined contribution increased to 18 per cent by 2024.
However, the contribution from hydro and geothermal sources is far less
than required for the industrial leap. This has reignited the debate and push
for nuclear energy as a more stable and cleaner source for the national
development agenda. Ironically, the war in Gulf has been objectified by the
United States and allies as a deterrent measure against nuclear energy
development.
They justified this by claiming Iran is accused of building nuclear
technology for war arsenal, a claim for which evidence is lacking and which key
experts dispute. World political stability is necessary for the economic prosperity
of everyone, and this can only be assured by the absence of imminent threat of
attack on any nation by another.
Kenya has recently enhanced her initiatives at developing nuclear
technology for energy generation. These are meant to address the huge power
demands necessary for industrial development. A plan to build Kenya's first
nuclear power plant is in top gear in Siaya county. In 2017, the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA),
formerly the Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board (KNEB), estimated that a 1,000MW nuclear plant
could be operational by 2027 and cost Sh500-600 billion.
It will be located
near a large body of water, such as the Indian Ocean, Lake Victoria or Lake Turkana. It
is planned that by 2030 Kenya would have installed a capacity of 4GW of nuclear
energy, generating 19 per cent of Kenya's energy needs. This means nuclear
power would be the second-largest source of energy, following geothermal power,
a clean form of energy. The NuPEA is in charge of spearheading this sector.
The initiative will position Kenya as a regional hub for advanced
nuclear science, research and STEM education in East Africa. The economic
and energy benefits of nuclear power include reliable baseload power providing
a consistent 24-7 power supply, reducing frequent blackouts and dependency on
weather-dependent sources like hydro and wind.
Investors will have the
opportunity to venture into mass transport systems in the railways, water and
electric public and private vehicle transport. This development will greatly
reduce, if not eliminate, reliance on combustive oil as the primary source of
energy for transport services.
Nuclear technology facilitates food preservation
through irradiation, which extends shelf life and improves food security by
reducing post-harvest losses. It will also promote nuclear medicine for
early diagnosis and treatment of cancer and the sterilisation of medical
equipment.
Nuclear is one of the cleanest energy forms, emitting virtually no
greenhouse gases during operation, thus supporting Kenya’s climate change goals.
Large-scale energy generation of 1,000MW by 2034 and as much as 20,000MW
by 2040 is expected to spur industrial growth by lowering electricity costs for
manufacturers, making Kenyan products more competitive. This will also
eliminate reliance on electricity imports from neighbouring countries such as
Ethiopia and Uganda.
Industrial development will lead expanded job creation and improved
livelihoods. At the same time, the construction and operation of a single 1,000MW plant is
estimated to create 5,000 to 10,000 direct and indirect jobs for technicians,
engineers, and support staff.
