However, many believe when the tallying is done and verified, Raila and running mate Martha Karua will emerge winners.
Should that turn out to be the case, the question is: What will Ruto do?
Naturally, only he and his close confidants would know the answer. However, there are tale tell signs as which strategy they may pursue, some which are legal and others that may not be or are certainly illegal.
The legal option is not a strategy at all, but something guaranteed in the Constitution, which provides that a presidential candidate who loses in the elections has the right to file a petition at the Supreme Court.
In the recent past, we have had two of such case — in 2013, when Raila and Africog filed a petition to challenge the declaration of then TNA candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, William Ruto. The Supreme Court dismissed the petition for want of evidence.
In 2017, Raila once again challenged the re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy Ruto. This time, the Supreme Court annulled the presidential results and ordered a fresh election.
However, citing the continued existence of an electoral management body he had no faith in, Raila boycotted the elections and as a result, Uhuru and Ruto were sworn-in as president and deputy president, respectively.
This led to circumstances that in turn led to the handshake between the President and Raila in 2018. The handshake also brought to bare simmering distrust between the previously joined at the hip Uhuru and Ruto.
The simmering distrust became nothing but an outright attempt by Ruto to muscle his way to the presidency regardless of whether Uhuru supported him or not.
The relentless and shrewd way Ruto attempted to do this left little doubt in all but his avid supporters that nothing would stop the man from rising to the highest office of the land. Not Uhuru, not Raila and not the “system,” which has been unprecedented.
With that background, it would therefore not be unreasonable to conclude Ruto will not be interested in seeking legal remedy in the Supreme Court. Put another way, given the fact there has been a permanent fall-out between Uhuru and Ruto, and given the President has real or imagined sway over the Supreme Court, Ruto and his advisers will not likely pursue the legal option to challenge the presidential results, should he lose as many expect he will.
Rather, the strategy that must be in Ruto and his camp’s minds is to reject the presidential vote results and attempt to find other means to get to power or at least remain relevant in the new political composition.
Once need not think too hard to figure what that may entail but wiser counsel is for the man from Sugoi to disabuse himself of the notion if he and his advisers, indeed, have this as their strategy.
Ruto has been a guest of the International Criminal Court as a defendant for crimes against humanity following the disputed 2008 elections.
There are those who say or believe given this fact alone, Ruto would not risk being hauled back to the ICC should he lose by inciting or acquiescing in the perpetration of violence.
On the other hand, there are those who say or believe the man will stop at nothing to get his way to State House. Add that to the fact that Ruto’s running mate is a diehard late President Daniel Moi understudy, one can see the duo as quite capable of doing anything to at least get a nusu mkate government.
The voters having spoken and if Raila and Martha are elected, Ruto would be wiser to simply call this a dry-run for his future bid and accept the outcome anticipated by most voters as presently reflected in the IEBC reported numbers.
Doing anything less will eject Ruto from the political scene in a way that will be unforgiving and forever bar him from ever being elected president.
