This is according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition analysis report.
Additionally, 4.2 million people, 25 per cent of the population will likely be in crisis situation (IPC Phase 3) and 1.2 million people, seven per cent of the population, will likely be in emergency (IPC Phase 4).
As compared to the previous March to June 2022 projection, the population classified in IPC Phase 3 or above increased from 4.1 million, 27 per cent, to 5.4 million which is the highest ever recorded in Kenya.
The report says that this latest projection represents the highest magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity in the arid and semi-arid lands in years.
It says urgent action is required to reduce food gaps, protect livelihoods and prevent and treat acute malnutrition.
According to the Acute Malnutrition analysis conducted in February, the situation in most counties deteriorated compared to the same period last year.
Laisamis in Marsabit county and Turkana South was classified in extremely critical situation (IPC Phase 5).
Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana West, Turkana Central, Turkana North, Tiaty in Baringo, North Horr and Moyale in Marsabit were classified in critical situation (IPC Phase 4).
Laikipia, Tana River, Wajir and West Pokot are in serious situation (IPC Phase 3).
Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru North and Saku in Marsabit are in alert situation (IPC Phase 2).
According to the analysis, during the projected period, March to June, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate further due to likely below-average long rains.
This is especially in the southeastern areas forcing households to rely on market purchases for food.
The report says that Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir counties will be shifting from crisis to emergency situation.
“Kajiado, Laikipia and Nyeri will deteriorate from stressed to crisis situation while the remaining counties are only expected to experience a deterioration in populations within the phases,” the report says.
The report further says that food insecurity remains a major contributing factor that drives acute malnutrition, especially in the ASAL counties.
These counties are aggravated by the continuous drought experienced by pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods.
The report also says that food insecurity also led to poor dietary intake by both children and women, adding that in 20 counties where analysis was conducted, the IPC Acute Malnutrition results show a worse classification than for the IPC Acute Food Insecurity in six areas.
Majority of them had an IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 4 (critical) and a IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase 3 (crisis) for the current and projected periods of analysis.
“In these areas, the synergy between food security, dietary intake, health and acute malnutrition in children cannot be underestimated and food remains a crucial driver of acute malnutrition,” the report says.
“Milk remains a dependable source of nutrition for children aged six months and above in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods.
"The persistent drought with five successive sub-optimal rainfall led to a scarcity of milk and non-milk food sources in both livelihoods that have reduced overtime and expressed in poor dietary diversity where only less than 30 per cent of the women met the minimum dietary diversity.
"Both unavailability and inaccessibility of food in the household lead to acute malnutrition."
The report says that other factors, such as insufficient access to water and sanitation facilities, poor child care practices and overstretched amenities, compound this situation.
"Conflict and insecurity may have contributed to the worsening of the nutritional status of children living in these areas."
The number of children six months to five years requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has risen from 884,464 reported in July 2022 to 970,214 in February 2023.
In addition, 142,179 pregnant and lactating women require treatment of acute malnutrition.
The report also says that the projection period of March to May 2023 is expected to have sub-optimal rainfall that will further aggravate food insecurity due to low milk production and the poor body condition of animals.
Further, there will be limited crop production in the agro-pastoral areas, reducing the availability of food and contributing to poor food consumption at the household level.
It says that due to the high workload and competing priorities related to the search for food, childcare practices will be protected with more attention to the children by the caregivers.
The continued drought in the projection period will worsen water availability, compromising hygiene and sanitation practices and leading to higher vulnerability to disease.
The dusty environment from the drought would lead to continued high levels of acute respiratory infections.
Disease outbreaks of measles and cholera are expected to be on the increase, worsening acute malnutrition.
