The political future of several top leaders hangs in the balance following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, long regarded as a political enigma and kingmaker.
The so-called “Raila orphans”—a mix of governors and MPs—are leaders who appeared to rely heavily on his influence for their election and survival in politics.
For decades, Raila’s charisma and clout not only helped ODM candidates win but also shaped the trajectories of many political careers.
Raila’s dominance was evident in ODM’s near-total control of his political strongholds. Now, without him, many governors face tough re-election battles.
Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo said whether ODM-elected leaders will retain their seats without Raila will depend on how attractive the party remains after his demise.
“Is the new party leadership going to gather all and scatter none the way Raila did? Will the party still be attractive without him? Will the people come out to vote?”
“These are tough questions, and as a party, we must handle the post-Raila era very carefully,” he said.
In Nyanza, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Migori’s Ochilo Ayacko and Homa Bay’s Gladys Wanga face an uncertain future.
In Siaya, Orengo’s re-election battle looks uphill without Raila’s influence. In 2022, he narrowly defeated former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, who ran on a UDM ticket and analysts predict the 2027 race could be even tougher.
