Silent architect: Will Raila control 2027 election from grave?

For years, it was a given that once Raila Odinga endorsed a candidate by holding their hand, especially in Nyanza, that person’s victory was virtually assured.

A nod, an endorsement, a whispered blessing from ‘Jakom’ (the chairman) was often enough to anoint a candidate and seal an election.

On the flipside, Raila’s withdrawal of favour was a political death sentence. Those who didn’t toe the line were doomed to political oblivion in their pursuit of MP, governor, or Senate seats.

At the centre of the machinations was the ODM party, and those who didn’t belong usually faced a herculean task of persuading the electorate.

Any form of defiance was viewed as an automatic signal of a fall, a judgment that was passed on Orange party MPs who warmed up to William Ruto’s presidency in its nascent stages.

That group was severely admonished. It included MPs Tom Ojienda (Kisumu senator), Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), Mark Nyamitta (Uriri), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo) and Felix Odiwuor, aka Jalang’o (Lang'ata).

They faced rebellion, especially after Raila joined hands with Ruto under the broad-based government arrangement and were, to an extent, condemned as having written their political obituaries.

Voting patterns started changing gradually in a wave, including ethe lection of notable figures such as Ugenya MP David Ochieng, outside the ODM machinery.

He was elected in 2019 on the Movement for Democracy and Growth ticket.

Raila’s shadow, however, still loomed large.

Kisumu East MP Shakeel Shabbir also won the 2022 election as an independent. Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who was also deemed a rebel, failed in his independent bid for Homa Bay governor.

Even so, they had to play their politics carefully, so as not to antagonise the former Prime Minister, lest they fell out with the very constituency they depended on to win an election battle.

Given the ODM leader’s death on October 15, political pundits are gripped by a single, unresolved question: Will Raila control 2027 politics from his grave?

Some observers say the former PM would still have influence, while others, especially those not blessed by Raila, say elections will never be the same.

Going by the many delegations that have trooped to Raila’s graveside, some pundits posit that he and his ideas would still be influential nationally.

The story is different for his Nyanza compatriots.

Whereas Raila’s legacy will be the frame through which the election will be contested, it is also debated how much his overwhelming absence will affect a number of political figures.

Anderson Ojwang’, who unsuccessfully ran for Karachuonyo MP, told the Star that in Nyanza those who depended on the ODM leader may have as well written their political obituaries.

“We are likely to witness many MPs not vying in the 2027 election,” the veteran journalist said.

“For them, Raila was their IEBC (Independent and Electoral Boundaries Commission) and without him, it is game over. It is the end of a political era of error, and now it's the moment of burial.”

In Nyanza, the upcoming by-election on November 27 ¾ one of 24 countrywide ¾ is viewed as a referendum on Raila’s successors and a test of whether ODM can outlast the former premier’s influence.

Nationally, the by-election is seen as being shaped by the opposition’s failure to find a unifying figure to replace him.

Inasmuch as Raila had given signs he would back Ruto, members of the United Opposition publicly expressed hopes of Raila’s return to their fold.

For individual candidates, the question will be how effectively they can leverage Raila's memory or how successfully they can run on their own merits.

Pundits say that much as the former ODM leader’s influence would affect elections, politicians who built their careers on his endorsement are in a precarious position.

Prof Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said he foresees a more savvy electorate who will rate candidates based on their ideology and actions, more than their party.

“To an extent, yes, 'Raila will speak,’ but largely I see a situation where the electorate will hold candidates more accountable,” the don said. “The period for hanging onto Baba's coattails could be long gone.”

In Raila’s Nyanza heartland, a group of leaders were often mockingly referred to as 'osiem gi luth' (handpicked) for their reliance on ODM direct tickets.

Governors such as James Orengo (Siaya), Anyang' Nyong'o (Kisumu), Ochilo Ayacko (Migori), and Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay) were spared competitive primaries due to Raila’s intervention.

Without Raila’s commanding presence to dissuade challengers, these leaders are expected to face their most serious electoral tests yet, as competitors’ previously shelved ambitions resurface.

Oscar Omondi, who unsuccessfully ran for the Siaya Senate seat in 2022, said the Raila bases and those who rode his wave of popularity are back to ground zero.

“For people like me who lost nominations unfairly, we are now equal,” Omondi said.

“Things are not going to be easy for those who depended on and looked up to Jakom to make a stride in politics. Without him, they are already in panic mode.”

He said the direct ticket holders must devise a way of surviving the changing tide or else they would be swept away.

“Death is a bad reaper. The direct ticket holders will have to learn how to survive the dependency. They are [political] orphans and have to fight just like everyone else,” Omondi added.

Perhaps the most vocal political orphan is Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, who is also National Assembly Minority leader, and has openly adopted the ‘orphan’ label.

"I have seen on social media, people ridiculing me, saying my career is finished and that I am a political orphan," Junet said in Bondo during Raila’s burial ceremony.

For Nyakach politician Erick Okeyo, Raila cannot control politics from his grave.

“Luo land was the only place where passing Raila’s greetings to a crowd made one win elections,” he said. “There are careers that will collapse for good in his absence.”

He argued that leaders, especially those seeking reelection, would now have to campaign on their track record.

“The best place to watch is Luo land. The by-elections will tell it all. If ODM works hard, it may clinch Ugunja but Kasipul remains dicey,” Okeyo said.

Governance analyst Daniel Orogo agrees. He said, "MPs and governors must now begin to align to the constituency demands and ensure they have succeeded in their development record."

Widespread anxiety now permeates Raila’s inner circle, including figures such as Babu Owino (Embakasi East MP) and Edwin Sifuna (Nairobi senator), who enjoyed the former PM’s protection and now face an uncertain status within the party.

Several of the former ODM leader’s allies were also placed in Cabinet positions under Raila’s broad-based government pact with Ruto.

They find themselves in an ambiguous position, as there has been a major backlash within the Orange party against Raila’s partnership with Ruto.

They are Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), John Mbadi (National Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives).

Their future depends heavily on President Ruto's patronage, forcing them to navigate between honouring Raila’s legacy and securing their own political survival and advancement.

Ruto had strategically pegged his 2027 reelection bid on the political pact between UDA and ODM.

With the ODM leader gone, Ruto’s paths to secure the former opposition leader's strongholds seem littered with uncertainty, in the face of ODM’s existential crisis.

The President must perform a delicate balancing act to secure Raila's former bases while managing expectations from his own traditional strongholds. 

Instant analysis:

The 2027 election will be the ultimate test of Kenya's political evolution, a contest revealing whether institutions and ideologies can triumph over personality and whether new leaders can emerge from the shadow of a giant. One truth remains self-evident: Raila’s ghost will loom large over the campaigns as the silent architect of the new political reality he has left behind.